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Presumably, the...Look again at that tungsten plot.<br /><br />Presumably, the reported price is inflation-adjusted -- if not, the real price of tungsten has dropped dramatically over the last 100 years. But how do we meaningfully adjust for inflation when comparing the very different horse-drawn world of 1900 with today?<br /><br />Leaving that philosophical issue aside, the reported price of tungsten in 2004 was about the same as in 1900. Wow!!<br /><br />The graph shows reported price spikes during World War I, following World War II, and in the 1980s -- and today. It would be a bold man who predicted that today's higher price was a permanent increase rather than just another temporary spike.Kinuachdrachhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13275320683766290581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5251183560375528307.post-45300619461720395922010-12-30T21:00:44.237-06:002010-12-30T21:00:44.237-06:00If I look at the plot of price for tungsten in the...If I look at the plot of price for tungsten in the first ref, it is around $6,000 a ton, which would give a price of around $3 a lb, allowing for the thickness of the graph line and seeking only a rough estimate. If that is indeed the case, then the gain would be from $3 to $19, which for some 66 lb purchased would give a gain of $2,600. This would raise the size of the check to close to $5,000. Wow!Heading Outhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01790783659594652657noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5251183560375528307.post-90606962173201795472010-12-30T20:28:09.977-06:002010-12-30T20:28:09.977-06:00Great post! Not that it would satisfy Michael Lyn...Great post! Not that it would satisfy Michael Lynch and pals over at <a href="http://masterresource.org/" rel="nofollow">masterresource.org.</a><br /><br />Easy enough to find charts of the missing metals, here's <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/96172-chromium-more-than-fancy-trim" rel="nofollow">chromium,</a> courtesy Seeking Alpha, and <a href="http://iconresources.com.au/_blog/The_Tungsten_Blog/post/Upward_Pressure_on_Price_Continues/" rel="nofollow">tungsten</a> courtesy of a dedicated blog - this chart goes back to 1900. Looks like both started out the 21st century flattish but chromium took off on a steady linear rise in 2002, tungsten doing the same in 2004 - suggesting a different shape than the infomine graph, perhaps. <a href="http://minerals.er.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/tungsten/index.html" rel="nofollow">USGS page on tungsten</a> has .xls with some price data.KLRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00691172491186270514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5251183560375528307.post-84374375713569487312010-12-30T09:38:24.140-06:002010-12-30T09:38:24.140-06:00Do these kinds of "bets" miss the point?...Do these kinds of "bets" miss the point? The resources which are important, and their price, depend on decisions which human beings make.<br /><br />The original form of renewable energy was slavery, and was used in various forms in most cultures over a period of thousands of years. What has happened to the price of a slave today?<br /><br />We all know that question is irrelevant. Renewable slave energy was replaced by fossil fuels -- to the great benefit of us all. Technological progress has the potential to render issues such as "Peak Slave" irrelevant; provided that we continuously encourage technological progress.<br /><br />If the West had not been mislead by a small band of activists in the 1970s, nuclear energy would by now have made signficant inroads into the market for fossil fuels, with consequent impact on fossil fuel prices. <br /><br />The obvious path forward was to replace coal with nuclear for electric generation, and then to use nuclear power to "mine" liquid hydrocarbon fuels from that coal and various other carbon sources. Those "mined" liquid hydrocarbons would have set the ceiling price for conventional oil production.<br /><br />But the activists succeeded. The West turned its back on technological progress. And now the future belongs to those who are embracing technology, most notably China & Russia.Kinuachdrachhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13275320683766290581noreply@blogger.com