tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5251183560375528307.post7416966490851511541..comments2024-09-17T02:25:08.921-05:00Comments on Bit Tooth Energy: OGPPS - Saudi Arabia and what lies aheadHeading Outhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01790783659594652657noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5251183560375528307.post-10629473947728003432012-07-26T22:32:02.700-05:002012-07-26T22:32:02.700-05:00Willis:
Sorry, you need to read the subsequent p...Willis:<br /> Sorry, you need to read the subsequent post in which I provide the KSA definition of decline rate/deletion. It is a percentage of the original whole, and thus, as a result, the calculation that I provided is valid.Heading Outhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01790783659594652657noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5251183560375528307.post-66229167142129767832012-07-17T11:45:37.135-05:002012-07-17T11:45:37.135-05:00I fear you have a simple math error. If something ...I fear you have a simple math error. If something declines at 2% per year, it will not be down to zero in 100 years.<br /><br />This is because the depletion follows an exponential decay. If it is declining at 2% per year, each year's output is 98% <em>of the previous year's output</em>. So if it is 100 in the first year, it will be 98 in the second year (100 * 0.98).<br /><br />But it won't be 96 in the third year, it will be 98 * 0.98 = 96.04. And in the fourth year, it will be 96.04 * 0.98 = 94.12, and so on down the line.<br /><br />In general, after X years, the amount remaining will be 0.98 to the power of X (0.98 ^ X).<br /><br />And this means that after 50 years, you will not be down to zero as you claim. Instead, you'll still have about 0.98 ^ 50 = 36% of the original amount remaining.<br /><br />One thing I've learned in my years of writing for the web is that it is very dangerous to say things like:<br /><br /><em>Even to those with poor math skills, these are not difficult operations ...</em><br /><br />In my experience, that generally leads to my making a foolish math mistake ...<br /><br />All the best,<br /><br />w.Willis Eschenbachhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14276840691598976175noreply@blogger.com