tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5251183560375528307.post9141226249463686444..comments2021-07-30T00:01:16.287-05:00Comments on Bit Tooth Energy: One impact of the cold spellHeading Outhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01790783659594652657noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5251183560375528307.post-15287857100795950992010-01-08T16:42:26.409-06:002010-01-08T16:42:26.409-06:00I understand the point, blame it rather on my bad ...I understand the point, blame it rather on my bad habit of over-condensing information to the point that I simplify too much, and leave out additional information (such as the previous record).Heading Outhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01790783659594652657noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5251183560375528307.post-81840991015103314862010-01-08T14:13:50.010-06:002010-01-08T14:13:50.010-06:00H.O - I'm not taking any position on the Met o...H.O - I'm not taking any position on the Met office's performance, just pointing out that you are making elementary errors of statistical analysis in your writing.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5251183560375528307.post-2808628916047489632010-01-08T13:42:08.794-06:002010-01-08T13:42:08.794-06:00I'll mention that, at the same time that it...I'll mention that, at the same time that it's unseasonably cold in the UK, I've been unseasonably warm in the Pacific Northwest. I don't think of that as AGW either but it might, in my case, have something to do with el Nino.porsenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04362269873149438270noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5251183560375528307.post-21840108165537576222010-01-08T11:47:20.011-06:002010-01-08T11:47:20.011-06:00Grin:
Stuart, Stuart - you should watch the Head o...Grin:<br />Stuart, Stuart - you should watch the Head of the Met Office being <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8BCnX8LIIY" rel="nofollow"> interviewed on the BBC.</a> <br />This is the third major prediction in a row that they have got wrong (last winter, last summer and this winter) and M. Hirst has just been given a 25% pay raise. He does a very poor job of defending the prediction. <br /><br />And, as an experimental researcher (rather than a theoretical one) I have run numerous experiments over the decades and thus have more than a little familiarity with statistics. (I have even taught geostatistics for a couple of lectures in one of my classes, some years ago). <br /><br />But the experiments that I do are generally expensive and it is rarely possible to do the full statistical runs that would be ideal, and so we have also learned how to extract data from smaller test runs, and to grasp the possible meaning of anomalous results. (Which have led on to two significant improvements in the technology). <br /><br />As to where I learned the statistical tools that I use (which is I presume the point of the second comment) - while I got some statistical training as a student (bear in mind that finding where a mineral vein is going underground relies in part on a statistical analysis of grade levels from boreholes; and the failure of mine structures which can have varying conditions and loads, that are rarely fully known, is also increasingly analyzed statistically) I have been both self taught and have sat in statistics classes here that were taught by faculty in our statistics department, and did actually take a course in Statistics and Probabilistic Methods at MIT some years ago - information which I have used and built on in the years thereafter.Heading Outhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01790783659594652657noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5251183560375528307.post-48330784238697856402010-01-08T09:19:52.369-06:002010-01-08T09:19:52.369-06:00Oh, one last question. At what level in the curri...Oh, one last question. At what level in the curriculum at Missouri University of Science and Technology is the concept of statistical significance taught?<br /><br />In my education it was covered in upper division statistical methods when I was undergraduate.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5251183560375528307.post-73671291157114014202010-01-08T09:16:53.513-06:002010-01-08T09:16:53.513-06:00So HO, since you don't like it when I'm me...So HO, since you don't like it when I'm mean to you, let me be socratic instead.<br /><br />You have had a career as a senior faculty member in an engineering discipline at a research university, yes?<br /><br />So you have some training in the kinds of statistical inference used in engineering and science, yes?<br /><br />How improbable must the event be in the case of the null hypothesis in order for the event to be considered statistically significant?<br /><br />So in a single trial, if a prediction of condition X with 87% probability does not come true, is that statistically significant?Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com