Thursday, October 28, 2010

This Week in Petroleum and Ethanol, and VMT for August

Having a quick glance at This Week in Petroleum it seems as though we are in that phase of the year where there is not a whole lot that is new. Demand for gasoline is up a little on last year, with the recent steep decline in demand having been met by a reduction in imports.

Gasoline Demand (Source EIA

Crude Oil Imports (Source EIA )

Ethanol production continues to build,

US Ethanol Production (EIA )

The report for the vehicle miles travelled in August is now out and overall driving was up 1.6% y-o-y. For a change it was the North Central and Northeastern regions that led off the increase. Thus the slight uptick in mileage has continued in the rolling 12-month total plot, though at a reduced slope relative to the period before the decline.

12-month rolling total of vehicle miles travelled for the United States (FHWA

For the last two years there has been a strong decline in rural driving from August to December, and it will be indicative of recovery if the dip this year turns out to be less severe.

12-month rolling total of rural mines driven in the USA (FHWA )

Looking at where the most ethanol is consumed, back in 2001 that was Illinois, at almost 8 million barrels:
Ethanol consumption (barrels) by state (Statemaster )

Looking at the figures for 2008 the leader is now California, at almost 24 million barrels; followed by Texas at 18 mb; Florida at 13 mb; before Illinois shows up at fourth with 12 mb.

With the approval of the EPA for fuel to contain up to 15% ethanol starting in the new year although limited to cars that were made in and since 2007, there may be some further increase in these numbers.

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