Almost four years ago I went to my second Energy Conference. It was hosted by Nate Hagens at George Washington University in D.C. , and I wrote about it, at the time on The Oil Drum. The posts ran consecutively through the conference (two, three four five and my review (I like to give folks a chance to see the comments while I am still around). I remember Nate coming over to un-mask me as “Heading Out” (it was in the time when Kyle and I had not yet revealed who we were) and a bystander coming over to me afterwards and asking if I knew who it was that I had been talking to. I mention this because, at that forum, there were a couple of camera crews that I thought were from local news organizations, but which were in fact making documentaries. One of these “Blind Spot” has just made it to my mailbox.
It is the most beautiful of the “Peak Oil” films that I have seen to date. Amanda Zachem, who produced it, relies on the statements of those interviewed to provide the narrative to the film. But rather than remain with them in their office or hotel, plays their comments over different, and appropriate images, filmed by Adolfo Doring. And making the operation of a magnetic grab in a junk yard strangely beautiful in a couple of shots required work.
If you are not familiar with the message that we are running out of not only oil, but other commodities that are finite within the earth’s crust, then this is a very good introduction. It is built with a number of interviews from speakers at Nate’s Washington meeting (officially Peak Oil and the Environment) , since many of the commentators were at that meeting. These included Bill McKibben; Matt Savinar; Richard Heinberg; James Hansen; Ken Deffeyes; and David Pimental who were speakers, as well as some additional contributors such as Joseph Tainter; Dr Albert Bartlett, Congressman Roscoe Bartlett; and Lester Brown. The film allowed me to see Jason Bradford, with whom I have exchanged the occasional argumentative e-mail, for the first time; and backdropped the mountaintop coal removal in Virginia on Mary Anne Hitt’s remarks.
The essay that reviews the film at its Website is by Kemp Scales, who watched it six times. Somehow I don’t think I will be that tempted, but I will certainly watch it again, both for the photography, and to make sure that I caught all the remarks. The reveal a little more of the background to some of the players in the Peak Oil debate than are always known. David Pimental, for example, talks about how he got into the study of ethanol, and his realization that the amount of fuel that it produces is less that that required to manufacture it.
Because there are a lot of facets to the problem that the peaking of oil production will generate, individual aspects of the story did not get a large amount of time in the film, which tried to cover the whole picture of what we face, while remaining entertaining. And for that reason it may not be the best initial film to see, since if you don’t know who the players are, and their reputations, it is difficult to give proper weight to the comments that they make. But, that having been said, getting this cast of commentators to contribute, and combine in building this presentation is to be commended. There were no overly radical statements, rather the film is a steady building of a picture that we are heading into trouble, without the need to be "in your face".
Perhaps that is the point of the picture. We are still living a relatively comfortable existence (transient financial exigencies aside) and have therefore a blind spot for the problems that are looming in our future. The day-to-day existence with its beauty conceals, and distracts from the difficulties of tomorrow, and these can too often therefore be put off, or go unrecognized.
If I were to have a gripe, and this is common to many presentations and conferences that cover the subject of peak oil, and other commodities, it is that there is no hope for redemption given. Those of us who are trying in some way to find a path that does not lead to the doom that is foreseen did not get any significant recognition (only the disparagement of ethanol). This is not that I feel slighted (I only rarely offer to talk at these meetings, being more comfortable as a recorder) , but rather just to point out that there are some efforts ongoing to ameliorate what will otherwise be a difficult time and that they should be given at least a little air time.
I almost never watch documentaries a second time, this time I am probably going to make an exception, and will watch it again, so you also might find it worthwhile to give it a look. (And in case you were wondering I did buy my copy- grin).
Showing posts with label review. Show all posts
Showing posts with label review. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Oil 101 - A review
I read a lot of books. (A quick measure comes up with more than 10 ft of shelf space filled with books relating to the topic of peak oil and alternate fuels – not counting the books that deal with drilling and other aspects of technology that relate more to my day job). Some of these are quite expensive. Jean Grove’s book that I have recently been quoting, is now discounted to around $350, and several of the alternate fuels books are well over $100. But price doesn't mean necessarily useful and of my collection only 8 books sit on my desk. Today I added another to that rather select group. It is Morgan Downey’s “Oil 101”. It sits on my desk, not because it gives me a lot of the in-depth detail that many of the stories that I write require, but rather it is because it has a vast reservoir of the small, but invaluable, snippets that provide that useful addenda that help in understanding a story. It is, I suppose, in the format of the book I would have written if I had tied together the Tech Talk series.
It differs from them, however, both in being focused not just on oil, but also in explaining more of the financial matters that play such a significant part in the price we pay for oil and thereafter for the gas that goes into the tank. The book, gives enough explanation of the overall oil production business to be highly useful, without the greater detail that would, on campus, require a second, more detailed course in any one of the component parts.
Anyone dropping into the discussions at The Oil Drum or Bit Tooth Energy arrives in the midst of a group that has, as a general observation, some underlying knowledge of oil, what it is, where it is found, how it is extracted, refined and then marketed. Because these sites have evolved, over time, as the audience has grown, so, while there are occasional explanatory pieces, in the main the knowledge becomes more and more assumed. But if you don’t know, for example, the relative production rates of the OPEC nations, relative to the producers outside OPEC, or even which countries are which, it becomes more difficult to follow the discussion. For those of you who fall into this category this is the sort of book that is really useful. Because, without going into a lot of detail, it is that level of information that fills its pages. The information is given in tables, and with lots of pictures. (Small caveat – while small pictures work well on a Web site where they can be increased in size, they don’t work well at all in a book, where it is hard, sometimes to make out what the picture is trying to show).
The book follows the pattern of oil starting with what types there are, how it was formed and where it is found. It explains with a couple of simple pictures the concept of the kerogen, oil and gas windows and then goes on to explain, from the rock formations in which it is found, how the oil and gas can be recovered. Given the amount of material that the book covers, the specific detail on any one process is sparse, but with the underlying knowledge that is provided, it then becomes possible for example, to follow a more detailed description of the steps that are taken in trying to improve production from a well driven into a shale gas field, or why we are interested in the relative production rates and lifetimes of horizontal and vertical wells.
This is useful not just to the neophyte, but just the other day when I was writing a piece on the future price of oil I wanted to know the current percentage of world production that OPEC produced and bingo, there on Figure 5.4 was the number, 43%. The story went on to look at the demand for petroleum products as it fluctuates over the year, and there again was Figure 13.2, showing the fluctuation in vehicle miles driven, by month. (Being me, I then went back to the source he cited to get the current data, but it barely differed from what Morgan Downey had written).
The production of oil is shifting to the use of heavier, and sourer crudes. This will impact refinery use, construction and re-construction and the book provides an underlying appreciation for what we write about to explain why, for example, Saudi Arabia needs to build a new refinery to process the oil from the Manifa field. At the level of basic understanding (the role of a 101 course) there is enough information in this book to gather how a refinery works, and, again, to then be able to understand some of the more erudite parts of the discussion on refinery use or by Robert Rapier on gas prices.
While providing some background to the debate on current world oil reserve calculations, he does not take a specific position within it. Given the nature of the debate, that is perhaps wise. In a perhaps more prescient mode, he ends the book with chapters on the effect of regulation (a very likely new thrust by an Administration stocked with those who look favorably on the California experience) and on oil price and how the oil market works.
If I wanted to pick a nit or two, he did miss the recent change in the SEC rules (pdf) defining proved reserves, but then if he hadn’t maybe there would have been less of a role for the rest of us to play. It also only happened this last month, and while this book is almost that up to date, it is not quite. Yet a lot of the information is relatively timeless. And it would, moreover, be straining to find criticism for what is meant to provide only an underlying level of knowledge to the game. As it is there is enough information provided that it will help me remember facts and sources, and thus to explain issues in a fundamental way, so that the book will stay on my desk, and start to look as worn as some of the others.
It differs from them, however, both in being focused not just on oil, but also in explaining more of the financial matters that play such a significant part in the price we pay for oil and thereafter for the gas that goes into the tank. The book, gives enough explanation of the overall oil production business to be highly useful, without the greater detail that would, on campus, require a second, more detailed course in any one of the component parts.
Anyone dropping into the discussions at The Oil Drum or Bit Tooth Energy arrives in the midst of a group that has, as a general observation, some underlying knowledge of oil, what it is, where it is found, how it is extracted, refined and then marketed. Because these sites have evolved, over time, as the audience has grown, so, while there are occasional explanatory pieces, in the main the knowledge becomes more and more assumed. But if you don’t know, for example, the relative production rates of the OPEC nations, relative to the producers outside OPEC, or even which countries are which, it becomes more difficult to follow the discussion. For those of you who fall into this category this is the sort of book that is really useful. Because, without going into a lot of detail, it is that level of information that fills its pages. The information is given in tables, and with lots of pictures. (Small caveat – while small pictures work well on a Web site where they can be increased in size, they don’t work well at all in a book, where it is hard, sometimes to make out what the picture is trying to show).
The book follows the pattern of oil starting with what types there are, how it was formed and where it is found. It explains with a couple of simple pictures the concept of the kerogen, oil and gas windows and then goes on to explain, from the rock formations in which it is found, how the oil and gas can be recovered. Given the amount of material that the book covers, the specific detail on any one process is sparse, but with the underlying knowledge that is provided, it then becomes possible for example, to follow a more detailed description of the steps that are taken in trying to improve production from a well driven into a shale gas field, or why we are interested in the relative production rates and lifetimes of horizontal and vertical wells.
This is useful not just to the neophyte, but just the other day when I was writing a piece on the future price of oil I wanted to know the current percentage of world production that OPEC produced and bingo, there on Figure 5.4 was the number, 43%. The story went on to look at the demand for petroleum products as it fluctuates over the year, and there again was Figure 13.2, showing the fluctuation in vehicle miles driven, by month. (Being me, I then went back to the source he cited to get the current data, but it barely differed from what Morgan Downey had written).
The production of oil is shifting to the use of heavier, and sourer crudes. This will impact refinery use, construction and re-construction and the book provides an underlying appreciation for what we write about to explain why, for example, Saudi Arabia needs to build a new refinery to process the oil from the Manifa field. At the level of basic understanding (the role of a 101 course) there is enough information in this book to gather how a refinery works, and, again, to then be able to understand some of the more erudite parts of the discussion on refinery use or by Robert Rapier on gas prices.
While providing some background to the debate on current world oil reserve calculations, he does not take a specific position within it. Given the nature of the debate, that is perhaps wise. In a perhaps more prescient mode, he ends the book with chapters on the effect of regulation (a very likely new thrust by an Administration stocked with those who look favorably on the California experience) and on oil price and how the oil market works.
If I wanted to pick a nit or two, he did miss the recent change in the SEC rules (pdf) defining proved reserves, but then if he hadn’t maybe there would have been less of a role for the rest of us to play. It also only happened this last month, and while this book is almost that up to date, it is not quite. Yet a lot of the information is relatively timeless. And it would, moreover, be straining to find criticism for what is meant to provide only an underlying level of knowledge to the game. As it is there is enough information provided that it will help me remember facts and sources, and thus to explain issues in a fundamental way, so that the book will stay on my desk, and start to look as worn as some of the others.
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