A quick look at some Russian numbers

This is the beginning of the new month and so time to have a quick check on how Russian production is getting along. It is somewhat inaccurate to base any real conclusion on a day’s snapshop and at the same time the season is (finally) starting to change, with only another two weeks when we might normally expect snow (only 30% in today’s forecast). Thus when this quick look at the statistics shows a drop in energy production in almost every sector from last month, both of those caveats have to be borne in mind.

Crude oil production is down by about 1% over last month, at 9.63 mbd, with Rosneft up 1% (at 2.28 mbd) and Lukoil down 4% at 1.8 mbd, but these are within the sort of daily fluctuation numbers that occur and don’t likely signify much. Rosneft has just announced that at $4.2 billion its profits dropped 12.8% last year. Some 4.27 mbd was processed internally.

The natural gas numbers are down significantly, but this is coming to the end of the season, and it is getting warmer in Europe, so the overall drop shown of some 14% over the last month is likely related to that, although the Gazprom drop at 17% is a little higher than the overall average.

Coal production is off at 701,000 tons by about 20%, and though the numbers vary quite a bit on a daily basis, this is below the normal average. This is reflected in the use numbers, since coal will go into thermal electrical energy production and that is down some 12% month on month.

Because just comparing day to day at month’s end is going to give these variations, I think I will try recording the weekly numbers and show this as a plot, starting next month, since otherwise the snapshots really aren’t telling us a whole lot.