Saturday Pick Points

On Saturday evenings I like to take a stroll around some of the Climate sites to see what is new and interesting in the discussion over the past week. Climate Audit is unfortunately down at the moment, so we'll have to give it a pass. At Real Climate there have only been a couple of posts this week.

The first was on the fires in Australia and the premise that global warming is intensifying tragedies of this type. After initially taking a stance that AGW didn’t cause the fires, the article then quotes an article from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued this month, that points to the number of record temperatures recorded in the continent. It also indicates that the low humidity is expected due to AGW, and droughts are likely to be a result of AGW. The more recent post deals with tree growths and deaths in the Pacific Northwest and California and ties, through global climate models (GCMs) which not unsurprisingly find that the models, as built, cannot account for the change in conditions wholly from natural change, and that therefore it has to be due to human forcings. The item that they key on is the Snow Water Equivalent number which relates to water year precipitation and they find that April snow is a key variable. Given that California already has a big water problem this year, I suspect this may be only the first of many articles.

And so on to Anthony Watt’s pages where equipment failure reports continue, with there currently being a problem with the estimates for the Ice Melt in the Arctic. One of the satellite sensors has apparently failed. This problem first cropped up last week, and which has led to a discussion on the reliability of the data at The Cryosphere Today site (CT), someone even picking up on the George Will debate

In an opinion piece by George Will published on February 15, 2009 in the Washington Post, George Will states “According to the University of Illinois’ Arctic Climate Research Center, global sea ice levels now equal those of 1979.”

We do not know where George Will is getting his information, but our data shows that on February 15, 1979, global sea ice area was 16.79 million sq. km and on February 15, 2009, global sea ice area was 15.45 million sq. km. Therefore, global sea ice levels are 1.34 million sq. km less in February 2009 than in February 1979. This decrease in sea ice area is roughly equal to the area of Texas, California, and Oklahoma combined.

It is disturbing that the Washington Post would publish such information without first checking the facts. ”
Thing is, the article was written January 1st, not Feb 15th, and Mr Will was comparing the END OF 2008 with the END OF 1979. Not Feb 15th of each year (which was still a month and a half away from happening when he wrote it).
Why did Cryophere Today blatantly misrepresent what the author was writing about?

In other posts from the past week, there is another weather station improperly located (I need to send our data in), a little more controversy over an elementary school text and the one that caught me for an hour this afternoon is a link to the debate between William Schlesinger and John Christy on Climate Change. If you have an hour its worth a listen. (Lots of scare from Schlesinger, lots of facts from Christy).

Over on Gristmill they are still upset with the Will column and obviously did not see, or agree with the quote I inserted above. There apparently has been a miniature firestorm about it on the internet and I missed it all. There is another post on mountaintop coal mining at Coal River and, just for the record, if the writer’s home is shaking as much as he implies, he should get records that will stand up in court. Because the rules on how much blasting is allowed, and the impact it can have on local residences are very well and pretty restrictively defined. (My colleague who is currently doing "The Detonators" can give you bible and verse on it). Similarly there are other regulations that, if properly enforced, should quiet a lot of the arguments in the piece – but when folk get emotional about their property it is difficult to make those arguments. I do wonder though what is to stop Coal River from putting in the wind farm after the mine is finished, Access will be a lot easier, and with a large flat area then the winds should work a lot better.

Oh, and this week they didn’t like hydrogen either, and one gets the idea that if you live where there is neither the option for wind or solar, then you had better move!

P38. Pick Points

Half-a-dozen or so stories of interest:

Until recently if you had tried to talk to me about solar cars, I would have only been able to think of the cars in the American Solar Challenge, a biennial race that takes cars built by university students in races that last started in Dallas and finished in Calgary. Our office has a small glass memento for helping Principia College, who finished second last year (well OK, our car finished 7th). But these are all flat, single person vehicles that can reach (and exceed) the speed limit, but are fragile enough to require protective chase cars. Thomas Friedman describes driving around New Delhi this weekend in an electric car, with solar panels on the roof and 3 other folk in the car. The car is a plug-in electric with a 90 mile range which had just finished a 3,500-km road tour though when you see the size of the car, rather them than me. (The car sells for Rupees 399,343. ($8,196). That does not include the modifications needed for the road trip). The Tesla electric car that is to be made in the United States is waiting for a $450 million federal loan to get started. It is expected to come from the $25 billion loan program for retooling U.S. factories and they hope to get the money in the next “four to five months.” The current plan is for cars to be on the market by 2011 – for a mere $109,000. They have a thousand customers on their waiting list. (If that’s a tad much you might want to chat with John Hendrickson, who made one out of a rusty VW, it does 50 miles per charge and uses gel batteries).

India continues to move ahead with its planned expansion of nuclear power , with two new plants as part of a 2.000 MW expansion being announced as part of a move towards 20,000 MW targeted for 2020, as a way of supplying a country that is currently short about 16% of demand at peak hours. By 2030 the target will rise to 60,000 MW. Uranium will largely come from Russia , though U.S. firms are anxious to become involved, and French firms hope to be able to do some reprocessing since some of the uranium will come from there. Apparently Pakistan was getting some help from Japan as well as China with their nuclear program. Russia is also helping Turkey with its plan for four new nuclear reactors. China is also switching its power emphasis more towards nuclear .

Even the Russians are now taking heed of energy efficiency, though at the moment it appears more of an editorial opinion than a set of programs, though the Germans have been brought in as part of a collaborative program . They also have just opened production at a new oil complex in Western Siberia at Uvat, some 1,250 east of Moscow. (You can see it on Google Earth). Collectively it will produce, in time, some 200,00 mbd roughly. Russian auto production was down 80% in January, but it should be remembered that they take their Christmas break in January, and to help with lagging demand some factories just extended the holiday. Others have been waiting for parts. But this is a y-o-y drop. Natural gas dropped 10% and coal 18%. Checking back in on the most recent numbers relative to those I quoted on the 6th: oil production on the 14th was 1,325,000 tons, (9.71 mbd) in-country refining was 658,000 tons (4.8 mbd); they produced 1,721 million cu m of natural gas, and 739,000 tons of coal. Oil is about the same, but natural gas and coal are down over the last week. Had it not been for the Yuzhno-Khilchuyu production coming on line then Lukoil production would have peaked.

In a move to corner more of the coal bed methane properties in Australia BG Group has raised its offer for Pure Energy Resources. The gas is in north-east Australia and would provide feedstock for LNG facilities that would market the product into Asia. Shell who partnered with Arrow Energy, the BG rival in the bid, is planning a new LNG facility in the region. Japan meanwhile is signing more contracts with Indonesia for future LNG supplies and is being reassured by Gazprom that it can count on it for the supplies from Sakhalin Island. At least this doesn’t go through a Ukrainian pipeline. BG may, however, have another market in mind, since they have just leased an import terminal in India which, as noted above, is greatly in need of more energy. It should be ready to import cargoes by the end of March. In the United States, a new design has been submitted to the FERC for the terminal at Weavers Cove in Massachusetts.

The value of Norwegian gas exported in January was 29.4% higher than the comparable figure last year. And last year at this time they hit a record also. The difficulties in expanding production into the Barents Sea are not seen as a barrier.

More stories can be found at The Energy Bulletin and Drumbeat at The Oil Drum.

P28 Pick Points

Half-a-dozen or so stories of interest:

As up to seven new LNG ports and a number of carriers are completed this year it is expected that supplies will increase to the United States. The projects have been planned for so long, and cost so much that gas must flow and be sold. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has had to develop policies on LNG , but even they defer to the market. Given this potential for over-supply the Freeport LNG terminal is looking into the potential for re-export, and local storage, since peak demand and supply may not be in phase. On the other hand recognizing that the time might be ripe to gain access to a cheaper source of power, Japan’s Tokyo Gas is looking at installing a new LNG terminal. To ensure supplies they have agreed to extend buying contracts for LNG supplies from Alaska. The Japanese, who are the largest users of LNG, need to do this to replace supplies that have been lost due to export reductions from Indonesia. The Alaskan gas sells for roughly 4/7ths of what the Japanese would have to pay for gas from Qatar.

In the lower 48, gas producers from shale are moving to stabilize supplies to the network. A new “Tiger Pipeline” is planned to collect and deliver for Haynesville shale gas into the interstate network. A new well is going into the Haynesville, that will run 17,000 ft horizontally. The Marcellus shale is also seeing some investor interest. XTO expects that gas (natural) prices will head back up before the year is out.

Hopes for energy price increases are hitting the wind industry, just as it comes out of a year where the USA added 8.5 GW of wind power. Of the major states adding wind power, California has seen the smallest recent growth, and in part that is because all the “easy” sites have now been taken, and the costs of permitting are now beginning to bite in the sites that are now in development. As a result Iowa is now second in wind power in the nation and has six manufacturers. But it turns out that the claim that the wind industry had more employees than coal mining relied on skewed counting (they counted everyone in wind, but only the miners in coal mining. But older wind farms are refurbishing with larger turbines and this also helps economically.

There will be a new 500 MW farm in Iowa, if they can get enough land, but construction will start in 3-5 years. In Rhode Island they plan on starting an offshore plant in 2010, they have enough wind for utility size operations which is level 3 on land (out of 7 with 1 being poorest), but have higher levels offshore, which is where the farm will go. In inland Northwest Missouri they now have a town (albeit only 1300 people) that receives all their power from the 4 nearby wind turbines.

The disruption caused by Total giving a contract to an outside, rather than domestic company in the UK may spread to other refineries and include nuclear power plants.

High temperatures in Australia, and particularly Melbourne played some considerable havoc with the Australian Open . Even as that ended, rolling blackouts are anticipated today because of the closure of the power link from Tasmania (due to overheating) . About 20,000 homes in the state (Victoria) are without power and the rise in the demand for energy has reached the limits of what can be provided. Bush fires are also threatening power lines, and a local coal company operation , while the drought is draining local water supplies . Locals are also concerned because of the secrecy of the order of priorities for load shedding.

It is not only in California and Australia that water supply is a problem. In the Central Asian republics Russia is stepping in to sort out possible conflicts since the countries from which the main water supply comes (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan( want to develop hydropower, while those downstream (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan) want the water for agriculture. The Tajiks are willing to offer the Uzbeks water for energy. Turkmenistan is also involved since they send out electric power that must pass through other countries to the end user.

Uzbekistan is demanding 10 per cent of the $0.03 per kilowatt paid by Tajikistan to Turkmenistan.
This year the Uzbeks are also charging Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan US$ 240 per 1000 m3, up from 145 dollars last year.

And the Tajiks are not taking kindly to the Russian intervention.

For more stories go to The Energy Bulletin or Drumbeat at The Oil Drum