Tuesday, June 28, 2011

OGPSS - California oil and Hubbert Linearization

Last week, when I was writing about the heavy oil fields of California I used a plot from Jean Laherrère to illustrate the potential ultimate production from the Kern River oilfield as a way to illustrate its potential future. Jean has written, via Luis de Sousa, to point out that the curves that I used are out of date, and was kind enough to send along the more up to date curves, not only for the Kern River, but also for the Midway-Sunset field which, as I noted, is the largest remaining field. It seems to be to good an opportunity to miss to also take this opportunity to briefly discuss the basis on which these projections are made, since they allow an estimate of the ultimate oil recovery from a field, and a projection, as the following figures show, of when the field will effectively run out of oil. Let me start by putting up his figures for Kern River to facilitate the discussion, and then I will explain, and add the Midway-Sunset plots at the end. Jean has (since the initial post went up) written to point out that it is important to note that, despite oil price increases and more wells, the field has steadily declined in production, at a rate of about 5% pa, since 1998.

Figure 1. Past and projected future production from the Kern River oilfield in California (Jean Laherrère).

This projection of field decline involves an estimate of ultimate recovery from the field which is derived from this curve.

Figure 2. Kern River production decline and total estimate of production (Jean Laherrère)

So how are these plots derived?

This is a topic that has been covered almost since the time that The Oil Drum was founded (back in March 2005), since it was in May of that year that Jean published a paper describing how to “Forecast Production from Discovery.” (His pioneering work, internationally recognized in this field, did not start with this. For example, he co-authored with Colin Campbell the Scientific American article on “The End of Cheap Oil” in 1998.)

Within the pages of TOD Stuart Staniford had briefly explained it while comparing different methods of estimating future production back in September 2005, with a follow-on post looking at specific examples where it might be applied.

The technique derives from a process known as Hubbert Linearization (after King Hubbert, who is largely remembered for predicting the date of peak oil production in the US before it happened). Examining the data from oil production over time, Dr Hubbert postulated that it followed a logistic curve, which as Stuart pointed out, is an accepted model of how exponential growth occurs in a system that is of a certain finite size. It has been used since its original discovery in 1838.

The mathematics of the equation are fairly straightforward, and for consistency I am going to quote Stuart’s explanation:
In terms of oil production, the differential equation looks like this:

dQ/dt = kQ(1-Q)

Here, Q is the cumulative production as a proportion of the ultimately recovered resource, t is time, and k is a constant that sets the width of the peak.

The solution Q(t) to this equation is a sigmoid function, and the derivative is the famous Hubbert peak. The idea behind the equation is that early on, the oil industry grows exponentially - the annual increase in production is proportional to the total amount of knowledge of resources, oil field equipment, and skilled personnel, all of which are proportional to the size of the industry. Thus dQ/dt is proportional to Q.

Later, however, the system begins to run into the finiteness of the resource - it gets harder and harder to get the last oil from the bottom of the depressurized fields, two miles down in the ocean, etc, etc. The Hubbert model assumes that all of this complexity just comes down to that annual production gets an extra proportionality term of (1-Q) - the amount still to produce.

Now, there's a nice trick which I learned about from Deffeye's book "Beyond Oil", but I don't know if he thought of it or got it from somewhere else. The idea is that if we plot dQ/dt / Q versus Q, the above equation says that it should be a straight line, since

dQ/dt / Q = k(1-Q)

So we plot the ratio of annual production to cumulative production to that date, versus cumulative production. In his book, Deffeyes does this on p37 for US oil production. In the beginning, the data are crazy, but after about 1958, they settle down into pretty much a linear regime (with a little noise) that has held good ever since. The nice thing about this method is that you do not need to input an estimate for the URR. Instead, you extrapolate the straight line, and it tells you the URR.
You will note that Figure 2 shows this for the Kern River field, with the extrapolated out to an Ultimate Resource Recovery (URR) of around 2700 Mb of crude. One can then project out the decline in current production (Jean notes that it remains at around 5%) with an estimate of how long the field will last. (Figure 1).

The technique has some limitations in fields that are produced under political control, or due to other external forces where production can be shut off for significant periods (one thinks of Saudi Arabia, Iraq and now Libya as examples) however when political constraints are removed (such as for example in Texas) then the decline does assume a linear trend.

It does not, however, always apply, and Robert Rapier has explained, in two posts (here, and here) why he has concerns about using the technique. But in terms of giving a ballpark for production (and recognizing that there are always new discoveries and inventions that can be, as they say, game changers) the technique has considerable support. And the consistency with which the Californian fields are following the predictions provide evidence for such an opinion.

Figure 3. Midway-Sunset production decline and total estimate of production (Jean Laherrère)

Figure 4. Past and projected future production from the Midway-Sunset oilfield in California (Jean Laherrère).

I am deeply indebted to Jean for making this updated information available, as well as his indefatigable work in examining the remaining oil reserves in the oilfields of the world.

P.S. Jean has also discussed results from this region in other material, such as, for example, here.

374 comments:

  1. I got booted from TOD, so just to let you know that I published a complete analysis of your post as a DailyKos diary here:
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/07/05/991372/-The-trouble-with-oil-depletion-analysis

    Don't be too upset because I am only interested in doing the math and science correctly. Maybe you want to correct some of the misapplications of Hubbert Linearization and try again.

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  113. It is safe to say that you are scanning for any service center close to your area? At that point here is our best help neighborhood. We are giving an astonishing chance to get an LG washing machine fixes with simple and additionally to get help at your doorstep. LG Semi Automatic Washing Machine Service Center in Hyderabad We additionally give a warranty to 3months after the service is finished. Try not to reduce your bank money, won't diminish a lot.



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  116. Whirlpool provides you the best service for your Whirlpool products. As we have bunch of technicians who had the best knowledge in dealing with the certain products. It makes it easy for them to find out where the problem has occurred in the product. These are the best technicians who would do your product serviced with in less span of time. Whirlpool provides the services at your doorstep as you need not to run for us carrying your overweight product and get it repair. Whirlpool Refrigerator Service Repair Center in Hyderabad. We send our professionals to your very home and get your repair done if possible at your home itself. Fixing Your Refrigerator when it Stops Working properly is an Immediate Priority as you can’t Afford to let all the Food Spoils away unnecessarily. Can Offer a Complete Refrigerator Service. Even if you’re Original Manufacturer Warranty has expired. We proudly say that we can fix your Fridge quickly.

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  117. Whirlpool Washing Machine Repair Service Center in Secunderabad
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  119. 8 Whirlpool Washing Machine Service Center in Secunderabad
    Whirlpool washing machine fix in Hyderabad We repair all brands and all models. No issues which model and which brand of machine do you own. Regardless of whether you own a semi-automated washing machine, fully automated washing machine, top loaded washing machine or front-loaded washing machine, we can fix all that also, best case scenario rates contrasted with the market. Whirlpool Washing Machine Service Center in Secunderabad
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  120. Samsung Convection Micro Oven Repair Service in Secunderabad this helps to evenly toast bread, grill food, and melt cheese, at the touch of a button. We believe reaching this page gave you the only information about the only home appliances service center microwave in Secunderabad. Our Service Center may be a fully Private household appliance Service Center. We are providing Services and repairing on a rechargeable basis.

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  122. Whirlpool Air Conditioner Service Center in Secunderabad Are you looking for the best service center? We are here with 100%satisfaction to the customers with all instant repairs and good services.Customers are allowed to contact our service center 24/7 and they are well known techinicians and engineers.
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  123. Samsung Service Center in Hyderabad People won't have a similar energy for all the time notwithstanding they are occupied with their activity they don't have the opportunity to complete their family works. As development is occurring different products came to us, to make us feel relieved. There are a few home appliances that are helping us in different situations. Be that as it may, now and again, it will inconvenience us with certain issues because of some harm in parts.
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  124. Whirlpool Washing Machine Repair in Hyderabad

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  125. Samsung Microwave Oven customer care in Hyderabad Samsung microwave oven is one of the best repair centers in Hyderabad .we will do all brands of a microwave oven repair within a limited time. After contacting us we will reach your address within an hour. We will treat our customers with huge respect. Because all we want is our customer’s satisfaction. Samsung Microwave Oven customer care in Hyderabad Call us: 9133393306, 9133393307. We will charge only a minimum amount of 350\- for our visiting. Some extra charges are applied when any sphere parts work is done. We will provide you a warranty of 3 months. We are providing meaningful prices. So, all middle-class people can also afford our service.
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  126. Samsung Convection Micro Oven Repair Service in Secunderabad The convection microwave oven helps to evenly toast bread, grill food, and melt cheese, at the touch of a button. We believe reaching this page gave you the only information about the only home appliances service center microwave in Secunderabad. We give telephone numbers and sites to move toward us. You simply check our site and raise money by giving a tick on it or call our client care through telephone number and give every one of your subtleties our specialist will enlist your consistent and send our professional to you.

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  127. LG Washing Machine Repair Service Center in Hyderabad Our home appliances service provided Hyderabad all areas. Our technicians 24 hours Available and visiting charge Rs.350 only 30 days warranty.
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  128. IFB Microwave Oven Repair in Hyderabad . Every household microwave oven repair problems. Contact the global service center. So, don’t worry just try to make a simple call to our global service center. Our well-skilled microwave oven technicians.

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  129. IFB Service Center near me Best service center near you. We are providing the best services for your household appliances in Hyderabad. We do all types of repairs and services available in 24 hours at your doorstep. We are the service centre in all over the Hyderabad.

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  130. Whirlpool Washing Machine Service Center in Secunderabad

    We utilize various types of home machines in our regular day to day existence. People have no time to do their works at home so they are depending on home apparatuses, in that washing machines is one of the most helpful machines at home. .Whirlpool Washing Machine Service Center in SecunderabadWhirlpool In this way, there is an opportunity of happening repairs, at that point you will scan for a service center. We do services for only out of warranty washing machines and also, we provide 90 days of warranty once the service is done. We offer best types of assistance in Secunderabad with a highly qualified technicians who can settle such an issue in a washing machine. So please contact to our administration community.

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  131. Looking for a washing machine service center at your doorstep? Your device is in trouble? Don’t worry we have the satisfaction with all kinds of your queries. We are always working for customer satisfaction only LG Washing Machine Service center Our service professionals are founded in every nearby area of Hyderabad and Secunderabad to contribute to every customer of our LG customer. Our technician is equipped for 24/7 hours to reach your door.
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  132. LG service center in Hyderabad our technicians will reach your location and solve your refrigerator problem our technicians 6 to 8 years of experience on repairing the all home appliance.

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  133. Whirlpool Washing Machine Repair Service Center in Hyderabad

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  134. Samsung Micro Oven Repair in Secunderabad Nowadays everyone wants to eat hot and yummy food. So everyone wants to shop for a microwave. But some clients don't know the way to choose the brand. I always suggested the simplest brand like Samsung microwave. It’ll be work for several years. For suppose your microwave doesn't work? Here are the frequent faults together with your microwave then there'll be possible solutions. The foremost famous reason for this problem is magneto failure. If the microwave turned about such a lot is empty, it motives the magneto by annealing out.
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  135. IFB Washing Machine Customer Care in Hyderabad Are you facing any issues in your household machine? Then you’re searching in the right place. If your household machine is in urgent need of repair, then you are in the right place. We are the largest independent trusted customer care service Provider Company


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  136. Samsung Microwave Oven customer care in Hyderabad Here, we have a team of expert technicians who are eager to solve your queries and deal with your issues. At the Samsung Service Centre, we have well-experienced technicians. Who are trained by Samsung Service experts and then appointed. Our engineers aim to provide first class service to our customers. So do not get your product repaired from a local dealer, instead trust Samsung Service Centre. Your trust builds our confidence. Samsung Microwave Oven customer care in Hyderabad Call us: 9133393306, 9133393307. Microwave facility is specific for just small scale wave broilers. We manage all brands like; Samsung, microwaves Etc. our smaller-scale wave stoves specialists are all around experienced in a wide range of miniaturized. Scale wave broiler in the market. We give entryway to miniaturized scale wave stove administration in twin communities. We have our own vehicle office for the clients. Smaller-scale wave broiler facility the executives prepared all specialists in a proficient way.
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  137. LG service center in HyderabadAre you looking for the best service centers in Hyderabad? LG is the best brand in Hyderabad we provide in good service and our technicians well educated and a few years’ of experience in repairing.

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  139. Samsung Repair Center in Hyderabad We have one of the best home appliances in Hyderabad. Like Microwave Oven of different types, air conditioner, Washing Machine, AC, Refrigerator, etc. we are here to unravel the issues that you simply face together with your household appliance products. And also we offer our service at an inexpensive price.
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  140. LG service center in Hyderabad
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  141. Whirlpool Single Door Refrigerator Service Center in Secunderabad. Here we do all kinds of services and instant repairs and mainly we do single door refrigerator services and repairs . We have good technicians. Where we provide hundred percent customer satisfaction. We have good technical team where old products also look like new products. We provide door step service by certified professionals.

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  142. Samsung Microwave Oven customer care in Hyderabad Did your microwave separate, and you don't have the foggiest idea how to fix it before the night party begins? Try not to stress; we give quick microwave adjusting at your home in practically no time. Our broad scope of specialists will help you with all your circuit tester prerequisites, from a shimmering switch or a wiring wire at the best market cost.
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  143. LG single door refrigerator service center in Hyderabad Are searching for the best refrigerator service center in Hyderabad? Now LG is the best service center in Hyderabad and all are people truest the LG products. We provide original spare parts only we give spare part warranty for three months us gathering visiting charges only.

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  144. LG refrigerator service repair center in Secunderabad LG refrigerator service center in Hyderabad during this we've only one compartment the home appliance compartment is internally fixed in it during this model the foremost issue is that the ice compartment is full of over ice and through this, we've many problems like thermostat defect, refrigerator not cooling, leakage of ice compartment water, etc.

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  145. Getting disturbed by the extra noise of your washer? Don’t worry the things became common now LG Washing Machine Service center Need a reputed service centre near by your home. We recommend you to get in touch because we are here to serve our dedicated service at your doorstep.


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  146. Samsung Convection Micro Oven Repair Service in Secunderabad We believe reaching this page gave you the only information about the only home appliances service center microwave in Secunderabad. We give telephone numbers and sites to move toward us. Our service center is here to solve the issue of your Microwave oven very easily.
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  147. LG Refrigerator Service Center in Hyderabad
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  149. Whirlpool Service Center in Hyderabad
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  150. Whirlpool Washing machine Service Center in Secunderabad

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  151. Samsung Service Center in Hyderabad When you’re Samsung products is getting the job done, in time to repair to service center guide to get-it up and running. Samsung makes an honest range of microwaves which will spread to features and are able to fit any budget. So, it can face many problems like sparking within the side of the microwave. The cavity plate of the microwave goes to the inside coil of your microwave and gets smart.

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  152. Shocking news for the LG customers that now the company brought the direct drive for the LG product as we know the biggest competitions among the LG Top Load Washing Machine Service Center in Hyderabad we stand here to take care of all of the things we have well educated technical staff who can handle your every query softly. They will take special care of your device. They will reach at your present location shortly. Our 24/7 hours services will assist you with 100% surety. Call us or remember us on our website.

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  153. Samsung Microwave Oven customer care in Hyderabad The clients can use it in the run of saving money to go for cheap spare parts which can harm the performance of the microwave oven. The task will be impacted even by the solutions done. That is why our service centers in Hyderabad suggest and use excellent spare parts. Our service provides Samsung microwave oven repair center all kinds of home appliance services at an affordable price 350/- with a warranty of 3 months. This will help the long working of the microwave oven. Samsung Microwave Oven Customer care in Hyderabad Click to call us: 9133393306, 9133393307. Our service provides service for the best brands like Samsung in Hyderabad. Samsung oven repair service center in Hyderabad. As everyone knows there are spare parts that are low on price a microwave oven can make your life easier in more ways than you know? Over the years, using a microwave convection oven for everyday use has become a common occurrence. It has slowly, but surely, become a kitchen staple given that it is a simple and convenient tool for reheating and defrosting food.
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  155. Samsung Micro Oven Repair Service in Hyderabad In the event that you are searching for administration or Repair at your home or business, we are providing the discount on every service and repair. Our technicians will Repair on a rechargeable basis. The appliance doesn't only provide an alternate mode of cooking it also brings out the inner chef in customers. If our technicians aren't able to solve that problem! Just make a call to our service center and we will send another technician at the doorstep.

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  156. Whirlpool double door refrigerator repair centre in Hyderabad Whirlpool double door repair centre have lot of branches in all over Hyderabad and this is one among them. We are here to provide you the best services on your double door refrigerator .
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  157. LG Refrigerator Service Center in Hyderabad
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  159. Samsung Customer Care in Hyderabad Facing any problem with the product? We are here to solve it. Our service points are available all over Hyderabad. And we are ready to solve your problem 24/7. Contact to customer care with given number so our staff can help you by solving the problem which you are having.

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  160. Samsung Double Door Refrigerator Repair in Secunderabad Samsung door Refrigerator with have energy-saving features packed into a fridge your kitchen with an Samsung double-door refrigerator. Usages of refrigerator are increasing day to day, our service oriented company which we provide service for Samsung refrigerator.

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  162. LG service center in Hyderabad We repair all kinds of LG products in Hyderabad at the doorstep and acquire the service support for after expiry of product standard warranty period about product setup, use, and LG service center in Hyderabad care, repair, and maintenance problems with the refrigerator.
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  164. Whirlpool Service Center in Hyderabad. We provide all services to the whirlpool home appliances like washer, microwave, Air conditioner, Refrigerator. We have many branches in Hyderabad. Where customers can visit any branch as per their convenience and wish where Equal service is given in any branch of the whirlpool.

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  166. Samsung washing machine repair in Hyderabad Samsung service center in Hyderabad is a well-known service center in Hyderabad. Global Techno Service we are giving the best repairs and services and maintenances in Hyderabad from the past many years. Samsung Service Center in Hyderabad. We will take up all kinds of repairs and services of all kind of washing machines. Samsung Washing Machine repair in Hyderabad Click to call us: 9133393340, 9133393341 we will offer only the reasonable charges for our services and repairs and maintenances. And our technicians are available within the hour at your doorstep after your report at our repair service center. We will take up all kinds of repairs and services. We use only the best quality and branded spare parts. So contact us at our repair service center for any kind of repairs and services for your washing machine in Hyderabad.
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  167. LG has now improved by its ultimate renovation in elegant simplicity. Design visualization has almost been impressed by the customer. Providing extraordinary features with every LG brand like top load and front load washing machine LG Washing Machine Service center LG washing mashing machine here is the impactful solution for that because we offered an extraordinary service it very competitive service charges. We serve and respect to our consumer. Our technician had a treasure of knowledge and experience.
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