Pakistan load shedding, IPI, TAPI and what chance of change

While for many in the West the thought of fuel shortages is a “sometime” future thing, and there is enough energy supply around that there is little short term concern about, for example, having enough heat this winter. That, sadly, is not the case for many parts of the world, but in writing about them I have some caution in case I seem to be harping on the conditions in some countries, relative to the plight of others. The “Energy Shortage” website does not update information every day (looking at it on Dec 8th it was last updated on Nov 23rd) but the woes that it documents around the world consistently bear the same country names. And of these Pakistan is all too frequently at the top of the list. In the headline that day was the news that Karachi Electric Supply Company had confessed that it was load shedding customers for three hours every day. It had previously threatened to cut off power to local police stations if their power bill was not paid.

Yes this is that Karachi, Pakistan’s commercial center and also where

“Terrorists are fleeing to areas that are as far away as possible from the conflict and populated enough to hide,” Syed Mazhar Mashwani, Karachi’s senior superintendent of investigations, said in an interview. “In Karachi, they find places to shelter and it will take a couple of months to clean them out after the operation ends.”

It is apparently possibly soon to see fighting again. Yet they are having consistent problems with power supply!


Part of the problem has arisen with the need to maintain the power stations that supply the area. Two stations are currently down for “preventative maintenance” but as they return to power, they will be followed in succession by others.

the KESC has planned closure of two more units for overhauling in January for at least two months. The annual overhauling of Units 2 and 5 of the Bin Qasim plant will begin in January and continue into mid-February.

In March, the annual overhauling of Units 3 and 6 will be initiated and by the end of March all the six generation units of the plant will be available and be giving more than 900MW electricity for the next summer, said the sources.

The stations are largely powered by natural gas, which has not, locally, come down in price. For some years Pakistan has been seeking additional supplies, since they continue to come up short, and next year the anticipated shortfall is projected to be around 2 billion cu ft (BCF)/day . The hope has been for a pipeline coming from either Turkmenistan or Iran, with India being included as the customer at the end of the line in both cases. The Iranian project, which is likely to cost around $7.4 billion has had a fitful life. It has not been popular with the previous Administration because of the support that it would give Iran. It is now however, moving forward, with the Indian government sounding more positive.

Possible supply pipelines for India and Pakistan (Source EIA)

Perhaps this has been due to some pressure from Iran since they have already started the project with Pakistan with more than 60 miles of the 1,725 mile project already completed in Iran. The pipe will use 44-inch diameter tubes through Iran and Pakistan, dropping down to 36-inch in India, with a terminus in New Dehli. The target delivery is some 5.25 BCF/day, with initial supplies starting at around 1 BCF/day to both India and Pakistan scheduled initially for delivery in 2011.

In terms of Indian need this is anticipated to meet about 16% of demand, but with the possible current world glut, there are both positive and negative aspects to the deal (ppt presentation) and there is some concern that Iran does not have enough available gas to meet both this commitment and one of about 2/3 this size to the Nabucco pipeline.

The other likely source of gas (for both Pakistan and Nabucco) is Turkmenistan. That pipeline (shortened to TAPI) has had a long and varied history.

The 48-inch diameter pipeline will extend 790 miles (1,271 kilometers) from the Afghanistan-Turkmenistan border, generally follow the Herat-to-Kandahar Road through Afghanistan, cross the Pakistan border in the vicinity of Quetta, and terminate at Multan, Pakistan where it will tie into an existing pipeline system. A potential 400-mile (644 kilometers) extension from Multan to New Delhi is also under consideration. . . . Dauletabad Field is one of the largest gas fields in the world. DeGolyer & MacNaughton, an internationally recognized petroleum engineering firm, has thoroughly evaluated the field’s reserves. These evaluations clearly show that the field’s resources are adequate for project needs, assuming production rates of roughly 1.5 BCF of gas per day (15 BCM of gas per year) for 30 years or more. The Government of Turkmenistan has guaranteed deliverability of 25 TCF (709 BCM) of natural gas exclusively for this project. . . The proposed pipeline will carry natural gas at a rate of up to 2 BCF per day (20 BCM per year/700 BCF per year).

This “alternative” has also found more favor with the American Administration, since it would cut out the Iranians.

But by itself it won’t supply all of Pakistan’s needs, and while news reports continue to tout progress it is proving hard to get that final commitment from Ashgabat (the Turkmen capital). And with the pipeline running through Afghanistan before it gets to Pakistan, and with the possible withdrawal of troops from the region now being discusses, long term security concerns may slow progress yet again. And reports out of Ashgabat suggest that the West is still viewed with suspicion.

Deliveries to Iran through a new internal pipeline within Turkmenistan are supposed to start soon (feeding from the South Yolaton field) but the concern over the conflict in Afghanistan is also seen as limiting investment interest.

As that story concludes “the game continues,” (A reference to the “Great Game, ” immortalized by Kipling, between Britain (then – the West in general now) and Russia for influence in the region – particularly historically Afghanistan.) Unfortunately as it continues to play the folk in Pakistan are going to continue to be short of natural gas, which means more load shedding in Karachi.

P39. Pick Points

Half-a-dozen or so stories of interest:

China is going to need a lot of oil, and to ensure it gets it, it has just loaned the Russian oil companies Rosneft and Transneft (who runs the pipelines) $25 billion, and for this they get an annual delivery of 15 million tons of oil (300,000 bd) for 20 years. Of the sum Rosneft will get $15 billion. The first pipeline heading that way will carry up to 0.6 mbd, but needs a spur to carry the oil to China. The oil will likely come from the Vankor field in the Tyumen region of Siberia, with the pipeline running from Taishet in Siberia to Skovorodino, a town of about 10,000 people, on the border, and in Amur province. Overflying part of the route on Google Earth, it doesn’t look quite as uncivilized as the articles make out. There is a Youtube video of the town of Tynda, for example.

Despite the problems that they are having with the California budget, customers of the Southern California Gas Company are getting a 20% drop in their heating bill. The average winter bill of 75 therms per month is expected to be in the $70-80 range. However there is a drive to change the gas hot water heaters to solar heating, given that about 38% of the home power goes to heating water. Unfortunately I suspect that the $250 million price tag will be too much for the state right now, even though it would be through rebates. Oddly Government support for such a move in Australia is meeting some opposition from Greenpeace, on the odd argument that they don’t generate electricity. It was only last week that tentative agreements were signed for solar-thermal power for Southern California Edison, with Brightsource Energy building 7 plants for a total of 1,300 megawatts over the next seven years. though the first 100 MW unit, in the Mojave Desert won’t be ready until 2013. SCE states that it now gets 16% of its energy from renewables. (Though by next year the state target is 20%).

BrightSource CEO John Woolard said the 400-MW Ivanpah project will create about 1,700 full-time jobs in construction and another 3,500 jobs to last the 40-year life of the plants.

The technology uses the tower approach rather than the trough shaped collector idea used by Acciona in Nevada. Israel contrarily has just approved the connection of a photo-voltaic power station to their national grid, though it will take 4 years to install the connection.

Perhaps the money put into the stimulus package for high-speed rail might head toward maglev. China is looking to start a new project next month although there is already one system in operation in Shanghai, that uses German technology. Plans for high speed rail systems in California are being debated even though no-one knows where the stimulus money is going yet.

While recent talk has focused on a gas pipeline from Iran to Pakistan and on to India, and recent reports have been either favorable or discouraging, Bangladesh remains strapped for energy, and so there is now talk of a pipeline from Myanmar, through Bangladesh to India.. However economic reality, and the fact that coal is indigenous to many in the region is causing the countries of South Asia to seriously consider switching to coal. India, for example, is now seeing a gap of some 5.7% between available supply and demand and needed the pipelines that had been planned, since even now gas can only meet 60% of industrial demand.

There have been concerns in the past over the ability of wind turbines to operate in cold climates, but with turbines now working successfully in Alaska those days may be over. It may still take about 17 years to pay for the installation, however, on an expected life of 20-25 years. Yet with that promise there is still uncertainty over the future of wind in Canada. In the UK permission was given to install ten new wind farms around Scotland. Britain currently generates some 3 GW from wind, and these farms may add double that amount.

And the EU has just released the Market Observatory for Energy report looking at energy generation in the EU. However since the range of oil prices assumed go from $61 to $100 per barrel for oil in 2020 it may still be a little unrealistic – but I will take a look!

More stories can be found at The Energy Bulletin and Drumbeat at The Oil Drum.