Tech Talk - Of wood, coal, the UK and Bangladesh

Ice and snow have returned to the central part of Missouri, so the warm heat from the tile stove is again keeping us comfortable. For many folk, however, this is not an option and they rely on a centralized power station to supply the electricity that is a fundamental part of current Western life. Yet there are moves to use more wood, even there. In an earlier post I had written that Missouri S&T was switching from a coal:wood mix to a geothermal network which, with the use of natural gas, is expected to provide a net saving of about $1 million a year on the fuel bill. Price, while important to a university, is not, however, always the controlling factor when governments get involved.

The rising prices and obscurity of future government policy has stopped progress toward a wood-fired power station in Northumberland. A plan to replace coal with wood at Blyth has reached an impass, with RES ceasing work on the biofuel plant. The $500 million, 100 MW plant had been scheduled to come on line in about two-and-a-half years but has been stopped due to “ongoing uncertainty in UK energy policy.”

On the other hand the largest UK coal-fired power plant, at Drax in Yorkshire, is in process of changing from being a coal-based plant to one that burns wood. But not just any wood, for as David Rose notes the new fuel will be wood pellets, grown and processed in North Carolina and then shipped at an ultimate rate of 7 million tons a year to the UK. The current wholesale market price for power is around $83 per MW/hr relying heavily on coal, but the agreed price for the wood-powered electricity will rise to $174 per MW/hr, higher than that of either onshore wind or the new nuclear power coming on line. (Using $1.66 per English pound). Retail prices are somewhat higher.

Price may not be that critical in the UK, but it remains critical in poorer parts of the world, such as Bangladesh, where the nation needs to infuse power into a country that has, at the moment, only a single power plant. Yet this is not a move without criticism. A recent Op-Ed in the NYT, protested the intent of the government of Bangladesh to begin a program that will develop their coal reserves. The article comes after the government appointed a new minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resource who has pledged a new coal policy “within the shortest possible time” and it is this (and the existing 2010 policy) which has irritated Joseph Allchin who wrote the opinion.

The major concern at present deals with the Rampal coal plant which will consume some 4.5 million tons of coal a year and generate 1,320 MW of electrical energy. The coal is presently anticipated to come from either Australia, South Africa or Indonesia and is intended to address the acute shortage of power in Bangladesh, with the government aiming to raise power generation from 5,000 MW in 2011, through 7,000 MW in 2013 to 22,000 MW by 2016, that being on its way to a capacity of 39,000 MW by 2030. By 2021 it is anticipated that 14 GW will be generated from coal-fired power, with domestic coal producing 6 GW, and imports powering 8 GW of capacity. The concern comes from the nearness of the coal-fired plant to the Sunderbans mangrove forest, and the threat which this poses. But given that millions of folk live within ten miles of coal-fired power plants around the world (the closest the plant will be) the dangers seem overhyped and unrealistic.

Figure 1. Relative location of the proposed power plant at Rampal and the Sunderbans (Yale)

A second power plant of similar size (1,200 MW) will be built at Matarbari although that will also rely on imported coal, at least initially (sourced from Indonesia, Mozambique, Australia or Canada) and

The government has also a plan to implement three mega coal-fired power plants at Moheshkhali each having capacity to generate 1200MW electricity under private sector or joint venture deals.

. Domestic coal production will require considerable growth in production, given that it was only at around 800,000 tons per year in 2011. The coal coming from the thick seams of the Barapukuria coal deposit has some 200 M tons of reserves, and is being won using longwall top caving, which simplistically involves undercutting the coal thickness with a shearer, and then allowing the overlying coal to fall into the mining opening.

Figure 2. Schematic showing the idea of Longwall top caving, there is a second conveyor at the back of the roof support to carry away the broken coal as it feeds down over the back of the support (University of Wollongong )

Bangladesh has struggled for years with less than half the country having access to electricity and with the rest of the population relying on biomass and waste to provide fuel for heating and cooking. But just to keep up with current demand it must increase natural gas supplies by 35% to overcome current shortages, and thus, to meet the demand for those without power they have chosen to go with the coal-fired option.

It will be interesting to see how the politics of this unfold, given the obvious benefits that will arise as more folk in Bangladesh are provided with electricity, with all the benefits that this entails, and which is being held up by those that one might have thought would have wished to see such progress.

In passing it might be noted that China approved an additional 15 coal mines with a total output of more than 100 million tons last year.

Indigenous Energy - Pakistan, India and Bangladesh

Yesterday and this morning I spent my time helping clear up the damage from a storm that hit our town over the summer. We were away, and several trees were left with limbs torn, damaged and in some cases dangling. So, I used the chance to get some of the other trees pruned of dead wood, and to generally clean up around the yard. Now I am left with a reasonable amount of kindling and firewood, to help heat the house over the winter. We have a tile stove, and so the effort is a little more to cut the wood to the shorter lengths, but the work is justified.

The trees remain, and will continue to grow. But other parts of the world are not as fortunate. Judith Curry has written of the facility with which commentators have cited the recent flooding in Pakistan as being due to global warming, when there is a significant case that it could, more correctly, be blamed on inept water and agricultural practice, with a little regional politics thrown in. Unfortunately the problems that she describes illustrate the problems of a country where the pressures of a growing population have sought short-term answers to long-term problems. For example:

Illegal logging supported by the Taliban in the northwest province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa has felled as much as 70% of the forest in some districts. The lack of trees, combined with overgrazing by livestock, reduces the soil’s ability to hold water and leads to soil erosion. Flash flooding in the northern, mountainous areas then sends silt downstream, reducing the amount of water the river channel can hold. . . . . . . . . . . . There are a substantial number of barrages (dams) on the Indus River that support irrigation and hydropower. The flood occurred when the rising river bed (owing to the huge silt deposition in the upstream areas) was trapped by the Taunsa barrage, obstructing the water flow. These heavy silt loads were then transported through western tributaries of the Indus River. Construction of protective levees and dykes has also contributed to raising the riverbed and the sedimentation of upstream areas; moreover, the rising riverbed levels have rendered protective levees ineffective.

In 1951 Pakistan held a population of 34 million people, this had increased to 144 million in 2001, and is currently estimated at over 170 million. It is thus now the sixth most populous of nations. The average consumption of 500KWh is a fifth of the global average of 2,500 KWh. Of that thermally generated energy currently produces around 63% of the power, while hydro has produced around 32% (6,500 MW). However, as noted above, the lakes behind the high dams are sedimenting rapidly, as deforestation increases the bearing load of the streams. It is estimated that 20% of the live storage capacity has already gone. Yet, because of its geography, there is a potential for more than doubling the amount of power available to Pakistan from hydro-electricity generation. It has the advantage of being indigenous, in a country that already faces considerable expense in importing energy. There is one project, the Neelum-Jelham scheme, in Kashmir, currently in progress, though it is controversial.

Neelam Jhelum Hydroelectric Project is located near Muzaffarabad, capital of Pakistani Administered Kashmir. It aims to dig a tunnel and divert water of Neelam River from Nauseri, about 41 KM East of Muzzafrabad. A Powerhouse will be constructed at Chatter Kalas, 22 Km South of Muzaffarabad; and after passing through the turbines the water will be released in Jhelum River, about 4 Km South of Chatter Kalas. Once completed, the Neelam Jhelum Hydroelectric Project will produce 969 MW of electricity annually at the cost of US $2.16 billion.

To meet the needs of the population Pakistan has steadily increased oil imports (to about 400,000 bd). It does have natural gas resources, and has seen these rise to almost 4 billion cu ft/day, in the same period. However it has, increasingly, also had to import coal to meet its growing needs. And yet the country has a large coal resource.

Pakistan coal reserves are estimated at 175 billion tons which according to the Vice-Chancellor (VC) of Punjab University, Professor Dr Mujahid Kamran equal 618 billion barrels of crude oil. According to the most reliable analytical reports Saudi Arabian crude oil reserves are estimated at around 260 billion barrels. At 60 Dollars per barrel this equates to 3708 Billion Dollars or approx. 4 Trillion Dollars (at current prices). At future prices these reserves will be worth 8 or 24 Trillion Dollars. This is enough money to build the most modern infrastructure, the best roads, the best hospitals, the best education, the best universities, the best hi-speed rail system and the best public transportation system on the planet.

On the other side of India, there is a planned collaboration between India and Bangladesh to jointly build a 1320 MW coal-fired power plant in Khulna, the land being proposed as Bangladesh’s equity investment.

It is planned that the Khulna plant would use high-quality coal imported through the sea from countries like Indonesia or Australia. The government is not considering import of Indian coal as it is generally low in quality and comparatively more environmentally harmful.

Bangladesh opened its first coal mine in April 2003 and has yet to develop it extensively, though there have already been strong protests over the planned opening of the Phulbari surface mine.

I bring these matters up, because I anticipate that, with the tightening of oil supplies, and the resulting increases in the price of imported energy, that countries will have to rely more on the resources that they find within their own borders. Pakistan, India and Bangladesh will likely be among those nations that will, likely because they have no other viable economic choice, move to an increased reliance on coal-fired power. The reserves are there nationally, even if, for now, the world price for coal is low enough, because of the large size of other national deposits, that they may not be mined. But, in time, they will be. Because, as with places like Haiti, and Lebanon, once the trees are gone they will likely not come back for a very long time.

The CIA, Climate Change, and the Booker and Plimer books

Thanks to Bruce Everett I gather that just when there are concerns about how well we are handling the war on terror, the CIA is being diverted to look at the evidence for climate change. Now I don’t have any problem with folks making use of data that was acquired while the CIA was carrying out their main responsibility. If the pictures of Afghanistan, for example, looking for terror camps could also monitor where the ice fields are and this can be given to those working in the field then that is a good thing. Afghanistan has a problem with water shortages, and there could be good reason for the CIA to be aware of some of those issues.

However the claim by some of the participants that the program is basically “free” appears to be a bit of an overstatement. And there is more to it than the initial statements would imply.

The monitoring program has little or no impact on regular intelligence gathering, federal officials said, but instead releases secret information already collected or takes advantage of opportunities to record environmental data when classified sensors are otherwise idle or passing over wilderness.

Since it appears that there is more involvement by the CIA than just passing over some pictures.

Controversy has often dogged the use of federal intelligence gear for environmental monitoring. In October, days after the C.I.A. opened a small unit to assess the security implications of climate change, Senator John Barrasso, Republican of Wyoming, said the agency should be fighting terrorists, “not spying on sea lions.”

So that there is the cost and opportunity cost for that group which I suspect does not come for nothing. And thus to the comment from Congresswoman Jane Harman (D-CA), the Chairman of the House Intelligence Subcommittee, who apparently said

“If you really want to understand where al-Qaida and other bad guys are going to move next, one of the things you have to understand is climate change. Famine and drought cause human migration and poverty. That creates pockets where terrorists can organize.”

I rather suspect that the problems that the terrorists are more able to exploit are those such as the power shortages in countries such as Pakistan, that I have written about before, where load shedding of up to 9 hours a day is already occurring, or the lack of electric power (and the benefits that it brings) in countries such as Yemen.

A report from 2006 notes that rural electricity reaches only 20% of the population.

The low access and the absence of reliable electricity supply have been recognized as severe constraints to economic growth in Yemen, and to the achievement of the Government of Yemen’s poverty alleviation objectives.

It ranks far down the list of nations, on a par with Haiti, and just ahead of Bangladesh and Sudan. Yet such is the focus of the current Administration on Climate Change – despite the growing evidence that the whole program needs a serious review to determine how honest it has been – that more critical concerns are getting subsumed below that effort. And if these involve the diversion of CIA time and effort then it goes beyond just being dumb.

I read a couple of books over the holidays, the first, which I highly recommend is Christopher Booker’s “The Real Global Warming Disaster.” For those who are less cynical of the AGW arguments there is a contrasting review at the Guardian, but that review highlights the way in which those whom I now refer to as the distorters argue when faced with a straightforward investigative report of the evolution of the climate change movement. The book is a very readable and documented assembly of fact leading up to the mess that the United Kingdom Government is rapidly getting itself into with its future plans for energy supply, as it tries to meet EC regulations and its own promises for cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

The Guardian criticism on the other hand (bearing in mind that Mr. Booker writes for one of their rivals – the Telegraph – in the UK) is the more typical generic global warming diatribe. It is headed with a picture from New Orleans after Katrina hit (a characteristic choice typical of the fear-mongering and “grab anything scary” mentality of the distorters, but given the lack of hurricanes striking the USA last year after AGW proponents had forecast greater damage and frequency of such hurricanes perhaps becoming a bit of an embarrassing one). It is however interesting to read the Guardian comment on the hockey stick graph from Professor Mann.

Predictably, he attacks the infamous "hockey stick" graph, a plot of global mean temperatures over the past 1,000 years produced by two scientists in 1998 which shows little change for the entire period until suddenly soaring in the 20th century.

It is now mostly accepted that the analysis that produced these data was wrong.

Somehow I don’t recall seeing that admission in any Guardian headline. And the Guardian article, rather than specific detailed criticism of the facts in the book (there aren’t any given) relies on “trust me” and “all those scientists couldn’t be wrong.”

Go read the book, I enjoyed it and it was informative.

On the other hand I also am plodding through “Heaven and Earth” by Ian Plimer, which has been acclaimed as providing the “missing science” to the global warming debate. And it does, but largely by bringing together the facts in the 2,311 articles and references that have information that relates to the global warming debate. The problem with trying to integrate such a voluminous amount of material is that it means that there are roughly four different references to a page and thus the information from any one of them can only be slightly discussed as it is integrated into the greater whole.

As a result the book reads much more like one of the dusty textbooks that I used to have to struggle through in an earlier part of my life. The facts are there, they are relatively well assembled, so that if I want to know more about the relative elevation of land after the passing of the great ice sheets from most of Europe the information is collated, there are a couple of contour maps, and there are the references. But while the subject of land subsidence, rather than sea-level rise is covered, and combined with a very brief history of the Thames (which explains in very brief passing why the Thames Barrier has to be raised more frequently with time), the subject is not described in much detail. There is so much that has to be covered, that the pace of the book ends up being too fast, and topics such as that, which could stand more discussion, are already left behind. Of course in covering such a broad field, had that type of coverage been given then the book would likely have been at least three times as thick. The provision of so many references does, however, provide a body of fact, which is as with Booker's book, met with significant criticism not all of which was as well based in the facts, which the book in general provides, either directly or through reference.

And the problem that this can get Professor Plimer into is that because it is such a great compendium of information, it is difficult for him to cover any specific area of the topic in enough detail to get much beyond the superficial comment. And this is a pity because the topics are sometimes covered so rapidly that it is hard to grasp all the meanings of the information, although the references are there so one can follow up on areas where there are questions.

It will probably end up on my reference shelf, not so much for what it says, but so that, when there is a question on a particular topic I can find the references that he uses and chase them up to get the more detailed information that I am looking for.

The Climate Change debate in 2010

So what is the New Year going to bring in the way of the Climate Change debate? I went over to RealClimate where they are acclaiming the accuracy of climate predictions, despite showing a graph which falsifies them. The graph is claimed to show how well Dr. Hansen’s predictions from 1988 have held up. (I have removed the trend lines from the graph below which otherwise comes from their site). It actually does the opposite.

The RealClimate plot showing the data reported as being the actual temperatures (in color) as opposed to the values predicted by Dr Hansen, which are shown in shades of grey and black.

In Dr. Hansen’s paper he gives the conditions for the 3 curves as:

Scenario A assumes continued exponential trace gas growth, scenario B assumes a reduced linear linear growth of trace gases, and scenario C assumes a rapid curtailment of trace gas emissions such that the net climate forcing ceases to increase after the year 2000.

As the media keep telling us we have continued to see the carbon dioxide levels rise at the rate predicted to yield curve A; yet the actual temperatures as reported by the folks above, is falling below line C, that which Dr. Hansen stated would require a rapid curtailment of GHG. Didn't happen! The predictions are therefore wrong.

There are two points that will likely come up in the next year as the discussion continues. Firstly – while RealClimate tries to tie the reported temperature changes to prediction B and thus to a continued and ultimately dramatic rise in global temperature, there are those who argue that there may be a period of “stabilization” or a “pause” before the temperature begins to rise again. The problem with that argument is that if you accept the extreme state, as Sharon Begley did in the Kindle edition of Newsweek for Jan 4th (but not yet in the electronic version – hence the longer ref), then there should be no “pause.” In the original paper Dr. Hansen claimed that there were no natural forces they could include that would explain the rise in global temperature and that it could only be explained by the GHG. Yet now we have natural forces that folk are rushing to use to explain the lack of acceleration in global temperatures. You can’t have it both ways, for if natural forces can explain the temperature changes that stop the runaway global warming that Dr Hansen et al were predicting, then they are of sufficient magnitude that they could have been responsible for the rising temperatures that we have seen so far. (Since they are causing the difference between the colored and grey lines which are now reaching levels equal to the actual temperature rise that has been seen).

To distract folks from noticing this, I expect that we will continue to see exaggerated claims for the impact of GHG in the columns of those reporters and editors who (at least nominally) are supposed to look at both sides of an issue. The degree with which they are willing to distort the data is something I have commented on before (relative to Bangladesh and Egypt for example), but which is again illustrated by Ms. Begley. In a recent piece on the impact that dams have on local weather and rainfall, she continues her diatribe against those who question GHG impact and illustrates her point using a paper recently in EOS. That paper shows that the changes in land use and land cover brought about by the presence of a large dam, and the lake it generates, can alter regional climate by, for example, increasing rainfall. Papers are quoted in that article that argue that it can lead to heavier rainfalls and changes in rainfall patterns, enhancing thunderstorms. (Part of it comes from the lake and part from the increased activity, whether farming or a larger urban environment supported by the dam).

Effect of dam on local precipitation (after Eltahir E.A. B. and Bras R.L. (1996) “Precipitation recycling”, Rev. Geophys., 34(3), 367–378.)

This has actually almost nothing to do with global warming – but that does not stop those who wish to blame the woes of the world on GHG from co-opting it. And the concerns that they bring include that heavier rains will threaten the stability of the dams. (Side note – since I have taught classes that include dam stability I must confess to not quite following why they feel that is the case, since properly designed dams should be able to cope quite easily, since it is what they are designed for – and the additional rain might even help with hydro-electric power generation, which is a concern in areas where drier spells (such as in India this year) otherwise are a problem.

Well that was a bit more of a digression than I had intended, but it illustrates the first point I wanted to make, that science be damned those who are selling the disasters to be caused by global warming are not going to be dissuaded by the odd actual fact, but will instead continue to exaggerate and tie in events that may not, in fact be related.

The second forthcoming event may have some impact on this, with the inquiries that are being carried out into the goings on in the CRU in England, and with Dr. Mann at Penn State. The ramifications of these are potentially quite significant, since, as the graph at the top shows, the CRU interpretation of the measured temperatures lies very close to that reported by GISS. Now there are some questions as to the accuracy with which the CRU data was interpreted, and those codes are now being scrutinized as the global data becomes more openly available. One can presume, potentially that this year will produce a more open, and therefore more willingly accepted register of actual global temperature changes. What will be interesting to see is whether this will also keep the values close to those reported by GISS. The investigations by E.M. Smith suggest that questions could be raised about the way in which the global temperature is being assessed by that office, and the withdrawal of this process from immediate public scrutiny may or may not be allowed to stand, but will continue to raise questions as to the honesty of the resulting product.

In short there is going to be lots to debate about in the coming year, and though I suspect that each of the two camps will continue to talk past the other, and to their own set of believers, there may be enough real knowledge that falls out of the slowly opening process, that we may be more convinced of what is truly going on.

The Nile, The Guardian and disaster without climate change

There are times when the corruption of the press by the mantra of “climate change” becomes a little more obvious than usual. So it is with the piece that appeared in the Guardian last Friday concerning the coming disaster to Egypt from the changes going on in the Nile Delta. To condense the story into a nutshell, it deals with the declining prospects of the Delta - the main agricultural resource for Egypt - both as it is currently evolving and looking forward from that into the future. You can see the influence of the Nile, and the Delta, (the green bits) in this overview shot of Northern Egypt (mostly the brown bits) from Google Earth.

Nile Delta and Egypt from Google Earth

The story begins with the story of the farmer Maged Shamdy, and his perceived fate.

"We are going underwater," the 34-year-old says simply. "It's like an occupation: the rising sea will conquer our lands."

Maged understands better than most the menace of coastal erosion, which is steadily ingesting the edge of Egypt in some places at an astonishing rate of almost 100m a year. Just a few miles from his home lies Lake Burrulus itself, where Nile flower spreads all the way out to trees on the horizon. Those trunks used to be on land; now they stand knee-deep in water.

Maged's imperial imagery may sound overblown, but travel around Egypt's vast, overcrowded Delta region and you hear the same terms used time and again to describe the impact climate change is having on these ancient lands.

The only problem is that the rest of the story documents how it is everything but climate change that is causing the problem – which doesn’t of course stop the author of the piece, Jack Shenker, from making the claim. So let me, as I did for the Bangladesh Delta, explain, with the aid of the odd peer-reviewed journal article, what is causing the problem – it isn't climate change - but in a word or four it comes down to overpopulation and the Aswan High Dam.

Let’s start by explaining how a delta system works –whether in Egypt, Bangladesh or Louisianna. The delta lies at the seaward end of a long river that picks up eroded soil carried into it from its feeding and surrounding tributaries, or eaten away from upstream by its own passage. Seasonally the river floods over the delta, and in so doing, as the water slows, it deposits soil on the surface of the delta. You can actually see effects of previous climate change by the changing nature of these sediments. In the case of the Nile, the floods come about following heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands and Sudanese basin typically in July. August and September. Lands could be flooded to a depth of up to 5 ft, and would be inundated for about a month and a half. In that time the sediment in the water would settle out as silt, the water would flush out any residual salts in the soil, and would prepare the soil for the subsequent planting of crops. This process has provided fertility and water to the Delta for thousands of years. On average the rains in the headwaters of the Nile removed around 0.2 mm/yr of soil and this was deposited in the Delta to an average thickness of around 1 mm/year. Interestingly across the Mediterranean at Venice, Day et al showed that this type sedimentation is anticipated to provide enough land build-up over the next 100 years to mitigate even the sea rise anticipated by the IPCC at some sites.

However, as the article notes, in 1970 the High Dam at Aswan was built, and this captures all the Nile sediment (between 40 and 132 million tons a year) which is now filling Lake Nasser behind it. Although, with the Lake being some 300 ft thick, and 500 miles long, it may take a long time to do so. But now that fertile material is denied the Delta.

So that is the first part of the problem. The second part is that the sediment of a delta will normally compact over time, forcing water out of the lower members, and thus gradually lowering the top of the overlying surface. Where the land is regularly flooded that sinking is matched by the new soil that floods over it, but it is now about 40 years since the soil stopped flooding over the land, and the amount of soil missing is becoming significant. Hence, as the quote above notes, the gradual sinking of the trees into the water of the lake.

The lowered land levels also make the land more vulnerable to sea erosion. Smith and Kader showed that this can be tied to the reduction in sedimentation.

Although coastal erosion is a serious problem along the Egyptian Mediterranean Coast, it is localized at specific areas. These areas have undergone slow to moderate erosion since the turn of this century as a result of natural decrease of the River Nile flow and as a result of increased number of structures across the Nile. In a post High Dame phase, these areas eroded at accelerated rates (3-5 times the rates before the Dam).

Lake Nasser from Google Earth – at the other end of Egypt (the yellow line is the border) The High Dam is at B, and this used to be Nubia.

And to get back to the original article for the remaining problems

Today, however, Nile water barely reaches this corner of the Delta. Population growth has sapped its energy upstream, and what "freshwater" does make it downriver is increasingly awash with toxins and other impurities. Farmers such as Maged now essentially rely on waste water – a mix of agricultural drainage and sewage – from the nearby town of Sidi Salim.

The result is plummeting fertility; local farmers say that whereas their fathers spent just a handful of Egyptian pounds on chemicals to keep the harvests bountiful, they now have to put aside between 25 and 80% of their profits for fertilisers just to keep their crops alive.

As the article itself notes the increased population is taking the water that used to irrigate the lower parts of the Delta. This has nothing to do with climate change (except in that the milder conditions of a Warming Period has historically led to population surges) But that doesn’t stop the charge being made.

Experts believe the problem is only going to get worse. "We currently have a major water deficit in Egypt, with only 700 cubic metres of freshwater per person," explains Professor Salah Soliman of Alexandria University. "That's already short of the 1,000 cubic metres per person the UN believes is the minimum needed for water security. Now, with the population increase, it will drop to 450 cubic metres per person – and this is all before we take into account the impact of climate change."

Much before any problem that might be related to climate change shows up, Egypt has a much larger problem, which is the root cause of the above, and which the article points out

With Egypt's present-day population of 83 million set to increase to more than 110 million in the next two decades, the seemingly unstoppable spread of bricks and mortar over the soil is both the most visible symptom of the country's demographic time-bomb and an inevitable response to it.

Perhaps that should, more logically, be addressed first?

Ah, well, enough said.

P47. Pick Points

Half-a-dozen or so stories of interest:

Up in Canada Suncor expects to produce around 300,000 bd of crude from its operations in Alberta. But all is not well in those operations. The rise and then fall in petroleum prices has had a significant impact on the oil sands industry.

Companies financing oil sands projects out of cash flow have been relatively unscathed, besides suffering substantially lower stock prices and having to delay projects due to lower revenue. Companies financing oil sands projects on credit are up for sale at bargain basement prices. The most likely buyers of those credit-short companies are supermajors and sovereign wealth funds.

The Canadian and Albertan governments have lost substantial tax revenue because of rapidly rising project costs eating into corporate profits. Relatively more upgrader projects being delayed or cancelled compared to mining and in-situ projects contributes to less value-added in Canada and a lower tax base for those governments.

The article goes on to discuss the significant costs of a cap and trade rule for the oil sands, and the potential serious consequences to the industry if it chooses to ignore that coming freight train. The report anticipates a cost of $80 a ton for carbon from operations on the scale of the oil sands.

In order to help the industry the Alberta Government is slashing royalty rates. The Alberta Government has also set aside $2 billion for work on carbon capture and storage for the oil sands and coal. There are however some doubts that the effort will result in any significant benefit. The current article in National Geographic has stimulated debate on the issue. But it has also brought a note that, if America does not want oil sand crude, (or makes it difficult to buy through CCS legislation) then China is ready to move in and take the oil instead. In Australia, meanwhile, a company has suspended its work on underground sequestration due to the plunging prices of permits (the problem that Europe also has).

While wandering around the various websites looking for comment on the demonstration at the Capitol Power Plant yesterday (which was a lot less dramatic that the organizers had intended I suspect, and a lot less well attended, I came on a couple of other folk that had been watching the video feed. One of them was OpenMarket who quoted a couple of interesting reports about some of the downside of moving from coal to other renewable fuels. The Reports were: M. Harvey Brenner, Ph.D., “Health Benefits of Low-Cost Energy: An Econometric Case Study,” AWMA Environmental Manager, November 2005, and Adam Z. Rose, Ph.D., and Dan Wei, “Economic Impacts of Coal Utilization and Displacement in the Continental U.S., 2015” (Penn State University, supported by a grant from CEED, July 2006). These looked at the conditions that would occur with different coal future production levels. The results were along the lines of

An econometric model was applied to a hypothetical regulatory case study, whereby U.S. coal was replaced by alternative higher-cost fuels such as natural gas for the purpose of electricity generation. The model was used to estimate the premature mortality associated with increased unemployment and reduced personal income. The adverse impacts on household income and unemployment due to the substitution of higher-cost energy sources were estimated to result in 195,000 additional premature deaths annually.

Somehow I doubt if we will hear much of those findings.

Pemex is sticking to its target of 756,000 bd from Cantarell this year, even though apparently their own figures are showing production is dropping at 7% pa. They are having some success with the Tsimin-1 exploratory well that came in with 4,400 bd of oil, while the Cali-1 well in the Burgos project is producing at 9 mcf/d.

Russia is signing energy deals with Spain that include renewable energy collaboration. This might bring the Spanish oil company Repsol into working on the Yamal fields. Given that investors have been lukewarm to the latest news of Gazprom profits this agreement, and the promise of some Shtokman gas for Spain supplied as LNG starting in 2014, may be helpful, since it may bring in Spanish investors.

And a quick note on the coal situation in Bangladesh. Apparently the Chinese company that has been working on the Barapukuria coal mine has told the authorities that if the mine does not start this week, they would pull out. The operation is tied up in compensation claims.

More stories can be found at The Energy Bulletin and Drumbeat at The Oil Drum.

P43. Pick Points

Half-a-dozen or so stories of interest:

I wrote earlier today about the pickup in gasoline demand that EIA had reported, and this was also noted by other folk, and the resurgence has led to a rise in the price of crude to $42 a barrel. . EIA aren’t the only ones trying to explain the situation, the Canadians also have some words on gas prices. Then there is the Rolling Stone interpretation. But rather that the technical explanation others are just blaming the rise on inflation.
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U.S. production of crude has slightly increased in the recent past, and industry are urging Congress and the Obama administration to expand drilling offshore, because although renewable energy sources will provide some future volume, at present we still need to grow basic oil production to meet the existing need. However that argument is not strong enough to stop Interior Secretary Ken Salazar from withdrawing leases for oil shale production on federal land, while he works out a plan for higher royalty rates. The Administration is however offering a second round of leases but there is opposition from local mayors near the operations. The techniques used in getting gas out of shale in the US has proved quite successful in generating production from shales that were thought impractical, and so now the Europeans are considering using them over there . Gas from shale is still only 5% of production in the USA though it is expected to reach levels of up to 50% before too long. The Canadians are now trying it, and proving along the way that just because the technique works doesn’t means it will make money. On the other side of the country, however, shale production is already making money .

It does appear that the Shotkman field is finally going to start development, with the initial engineering work being awarded to Aker Solutions who with Technip France and SBM Offshore been awarded a 25 million EUR contract on the development of a concept definition and engineering design for the project floating production unit. Recognizing that a business opportunity lies out there Russian authorities are now ready to elaborate a new EU-Russia energy agreement, to regulate relations and help speed up progress in projects like Shtokman, the Russians say. Royal Dutch Shell however remain to be convinced. They need to be sure that they will receive production rights after exploration and development, and in Russia this is no safe bet even with a local partner.

One example of potential problem comes from the Karachaganak field, where Gazprom and the Kazakhstan Government are thinking of suspending the joint venture Of course not all projects fail for political reasons Chevron has just pulled out of Northern Taiga Neftegaz a venture with Gazprom Neft after reserves in the Pyakutinsky and Aikhettinsky fields in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area, did not meet the original projections of some 45 million tons of oil.

The latest scheme is for Total to join with Gazprom and fund a pipeline to carry Nigerian gas through the Sahara to Europe, some 2,580 miles away.

As the planting season starts in South Asia the Bangladesh Prime Minister has directed authorities to ensure power to agriculture to protect food production.
The ministry of power, energy and mineral resources has stated that 130 MW of additional electricity has been added to the national grid and 700 MW more will be added by June. However the demand from the people of Bangladesh is that the government should cut the price of fuel oils.
 This year the price is 10% up on the last Boro season when the price was Tk 40. Bangladesh is still trying to find ways to economically exploit its high quality coal reserve . The proven gas resource are widely believed to soon be exhausted. In the absence of a decision the energy deficit is widening. This summer will witness massive load shedding.

Iranian and Russian technicians are conducting a test run of Iran’s first nuclear plant, a major step toward full operations. Work on Bushehr started 34 years ago, during the reign of the shah with the help of the German contractor Siemens but was suspended after the 1979 revolution. Pilot operations at the 1,000-megawatt light-water reactor, built with Russian assistance under a $1 billion contract, have long been delayed and it's unclear when the reactor could be switched on. Wednesday's tests were a computer run to ensure that the reactor's processes work properly. For the tests, technicians loaded a "virtual fuel" of lead into the reactor to imitate the density of enriched uranium, said Iranian nuclear spokesman Mohsen Shirazi.

There is an interest to form strong bilateral relations between Bulgaria and Italy to move forward with the South Stream gas pipeline.

More stories can be found at The Energy Bulletin and Drumbeat at The Oil Drum.

P39. Pick Points

Half-a-dozen or so stories of interest:

China is going to need a lot of oil, and to ensure it gets it, it has just loaned the Russian oil companies Rosneft and Transneft (who runs the pipelines) $25 billion, and for this they get an annual delivery of 15 million tons of oil (300,000 bd) for 20 years. Of the sum Rosneft will get $15 billion. The first pipeline heading that way will carry up to 0.6 mbd, but needs a spur to carry the oil to China. The oil will likely come from the Vankor field in the Tyumen region of Siberia, with the pipeline running from Taishet in Siberia to Skovorodino, a town of about 10,000 people, on the border, and in Amur province. Overflying part of the route on Google Earth, it doesn’t look quite as uncivilized as the articles make out. There is a Youtube video of the town of Tynda, for example.

Despite the problems that they are having with the California budget, customers of the Southern California Gas Company are getting a 20% drop in their heating bill. The average winter bill of 75 therms per month is expected to be in the $70-80 range. However there is a drive to change the gas hot water heaters to solar heating, given that about 38% of the home power goes to heating water. Unfortunately I suspect that the $250 million price tag will be too much for the state right now, even though it would be through rebates. Oddly Government support for such a move in Australia is meeting some opposition from Greenpeace, on the odd argument that they don’t generate electricity. It was only last week that tentative agreements were signed for solar-thermal power for Southern California Edison, with Brightsource Energy building 7 plants for a total of 1,300 megawatts over the next seven years. though the first 100 MW unit, in the Mojave Desert won’t be ready until 2013. SCE states that it now gets 16% of its energy from renewables. (Though by next year the state target is 20%).

BrightSource CEO John Woolard said the 400-MW Ivanpah project will create about 1,700 full-time jobs in construction and another 3,500 jobs to last the 40-year life of the plants.

The technology uses the tower approach rather than the trough shaped collector idea used by Acciona in Nevada. Israel contrarily has just approved the connection of a photo-voltaic power station to their national grid, though it will take 4 years to install the connection.

Perhaps the money put into the stimulus package for high-speed rail might head toward maglev. China is looking to start a new project next month although there is already one system in operation in Shanghai, that uses German technology. Plans for high speed rail systems in California are being debated even though no-one knows where the stimulus money is going yet.

While recent talk has focused on a gas pipeline from Iran to Pakistan and on to India, and recent reports have been either favorable or discouraging, Bangladesh remains strapped for energy, and so there is now talk of a pipeline from Myanmar, through Bangladesh to India.. However economic reality, and the fact that coal is indigenous to many in the region is causing the countries of South Asia to seriously consider switching to coal. India, for example, is now seeing a gap of some 5.7% between available supply and demand and needed the pipelines that had been planned, since even now gas can only meet 60% of industrial demand.

There have been concerns in the past over the ability of wind turbines to operate in cold climates, but with turbines now working successfully in Alaska those days may be over. It may still take about 17 years to pay for the installation, however, on an expected life of 20-25 years. Yet with that promise there is still uncertainty over the future of wind in Canada. In the UK permission was given to install ten new wind farms around Scotland. Britain currently generates some 3 GW from wind, and these farms may add double that amount.

And the EU has just released the Market Observatory for Energy report looking at energy generation in the EU. However since the range of oil prices assumed go from $61 to $100 per barrel for oil in 2020 it may still be a little unrealistic – but I will take a look!

More stories can be found at The Energy Bulletin and Drumbeat at The Oil Drum.

P34. Pick Points

Half-a-dozen or so stories of interest.

Beginning by perusing the snippets that dribble into the Houston Chronicle blog from CERAweek, Representative Markey admitted there would be some role for coal in the future; while IHS looked to see the recession last through this year, bottom out next and rebound in 2011, in the process demand for oil will fall another 1 mbd this year. In the same session company assets were foreseen as dropping further below real value, according to an IHS analyst; and the imbalance between operating costs and commodity prices would continue to feed increasing supply volatility. The BP Chairman felt that with enough investment (a trillion dollars a year) enough energy will be found to meet global demand. If we can overcome the human problems, the geological problems will be insignificant. He called for a confident relationship between government and companies, since without it investment would not be forthcoming; an open energy market; a heavy investment in conservation and energy efficiency; a program to address global warming, through increasing the price paid for carbon fuels (cap and trade); opening up the reserve areas now off limits including the continental shelf; incentives to encourage CCS and low carbon technology; and more investment in energy research – he bragged about the model program he set up with Dr Chu. In questions he said that the industry must get costs in line so that $40 becomes a good price again; that corn ethanol is not an answer (but cane ethanol is); and before we decide on electric cars we have to decide where the power is coming from.

The Schlumberger Chair reminded the audience that before the economic collapse we were having a hard time meeting supply, and his job is to keep a viable company until those times come back, and that includes keeping R&D going. The Director General of Pemex, said that they plan on producing 2.9 mbd this year, but needs more money for investment in new resources and a refinery. The Vice Chairman of CNPC said that China had a remarkable year and were concentrating on technology, including EOR for mature fields. In questions they saw a role for gas from shale, and a need for a better image for the industry .

The lunch speaker was the Shell CEO and he also pointed out that as the recession ends so the demand for oil will return, and fast. This will require use of all resources and will raise carbon dioxide levels. But it also will require investment, even through these hard times. They are now living on past investments, but fears that in 3-4 years the cost of insufficient investment will be hurting production. They plan on continued investment in R&D, he bragged about the unmanned offshore monotowers that produce gas. He also supported cap and trade, and many of the items listed by the BP head. In questions he said that Europe, having higher taxes was equivalent to a carbon tax, and had led to more efficient cars. In other talks, they admitted Texas was in recession with the country economy expected to continue to contract all year. And then Exxon spoke out against cap-and-trade, preferring a straight tax. Finally the IEA Chair said that they expected to revise this years demand down another notch, before starting to grow next year. But he also said that energy professionals were more optimistic than financiers at this point.

The struggle between water and energy from hydroelectric projects continues to divide Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan as the situation turns bad enough that growers are burning their orchards for fuel.

In the United Kingdom the National Grid is planning on sequestering its carbon from 5 coal-fired power plants near the Humber in rock layers under the North Sea which once held natural gas. They feel they can do this within 3 years. On the other hand Brazil’s Energia hopes to trap 1- 15% of the gas from a power plant in algae that can then generate oil. Another UK Power company Centrica has upset shareholders who would rather it invested in natural gas rather than nuclear power. And in the gas business Gazprom which is anticipating a 5% cut in Western European demand is also now expecting a 15% drop in demand from Eastern Europe. But that has no stopped them denying the rumors and pledging to move forward on development of the Shtockman field, starting next year, yielding natural gas in 2013, and LNG the following year. Gazprom is also investing in LUKoil to help it repay some loans. And speaking of LNG the anticipated shipment of LNG from Sakhalin has been postponed until April In the meantime they are making up the contracted amounts by using gas from Abu Dhabi. (Unrelated but they also have a wakening volcano – just like Alaska). Gazprom are also making another move at the UK market, this time trying to sell electrical power.

Russia is considering a tidal power plant near Murmansk. And half-way around the world similar plans are being considered for the Columbia river in the Northwest USA. Rolls Royce, meanwhile are testing turbines in the UK that can generate up to 1 MW, with a sea trial for a 0.5 MW unit scheduled for this summer , they foresee up to 300 MW of tidal power being possible around the UK by 2020.

The power crisis in Bangladesh is likely to continue until at least mid-May when the Monsoon starts, since the current drought has dropped the water levels needed for hydropower and at present they are drawing down the existing gas fields so fast that they risk damaging the rock structure, and still don’t have enough. Chittagong, a major city, now only has power for half the demand.

For more stories see The Energy Bulletin or Drumbeat at The Oil Drum

P32 Pick Points

Half-a-dozen or so stories of interest:

In what appears to be a win-win situation New York is learning what those of us who live in more rural parts have been doing for a while – adding used cooking oil to fuel . while the oil is usually transesterified to give a biodiesel, in NY they are using the vegetable oil “as is,” saving the restaurant up to $22 for 5-gallons in disposal, and the county runs vehicles for almost free. Mythbusters shows that it works, even with no change, other than filtering, of the oil which is straight from the fast food shop. On a word of caution you need to check that your engine is designed for this before trying it, since there is a world of difference between running a liter of the stuff through your engine once, and running nothing but vegetable oil all the time. Not to mention the fact that EPA considers it illegal.

Ausra is changing from producing solar power to selling equipment to industry so that they can generate it themselves, either as solar thermal or steam. This is not long after the company opened the first solar thermal plant in California and is a reflection of the times. The speed with which such plants can be built is shown by a company in Israel that expects that they will be generating power in March from the new domestic size (100 kW of electricity and 170 kW of heat) plant. Power comes from the heated air running a gas turbine. Often these quite small projects are being undertaken by students from American universities who travel to poorer countries to help with such projects.

And speaking of small subjects, drying clothes can take 6% of the nations energy, thus a move has started to overturn rules against clothes lines. There is a promise of subsidies for renewable fuels, as they scale upwards from the small, in remarks made by the new Secretary of Energy though I'm not sure that a clothes line will count.

As Britain suffers under more bad weather the price of salt for the roads has risen from 25 to 100 British pounds per ton. However, once the sun comes back, up to a quarter of British homes may be eligible for energy efficiency makeovers – though it appears the government may only pay for insulation, while encouraging investment in more efficient appliances – including wood-burning boilers. (Did I hear a mutter from Edward I’s tomb?) If you are thinking about it, there is a friendly web site to help with wood burning issues. And yet, even as they encourage wood in the UK, Montreal is thinking of banning wood-burning stoves because of pollution problems.

The question as to whether or not to build a new coal-fired power station is difficult, given the uncertainty about regulation, but in Europe the fluctuating price of carbon credits is also making it difficult to determine the balance between cost and profit, whether for the coal-plants or for wind farms on the other side of the exchange. Finland, meanwhile, is planning on starting a new nuclear power station (they currently have four and would like six). Russia is selling nuclear fuel to India, the first after the international ban was lifted. (Though Australia is still debating whether to lift it. They may need the money, since even Gazprom is talking delays in the South Stream pipeline because of money worries. They are anticipating that gas sales to Europe may fall 5% this year, with a drop in price to $280 per mcm.

I may feel the urge for a new Tech Talk (sorry about today – just swamped with requests for information at work) since Bangladesh is talking about starting “Longwall Top Coal Caving” as a way of improving the extraction ratio in their mines. It is usually used in seams above 20 ft thick, so Americans and Europeans should not get too excited. The need for energy is critical in Bangladesh, since reduced supplies of natural gas are causing increased power shortages and load shedding of up to 480 MW in January, today (Sunday) it was 1000 MW. It translates into several hours without power, and is expected to get worse in the short term. India, meanwhile, is looking to hasten the move to solar power by creating 60 “solar cities” in the next five years, dropping power needs by 10%. The first city in this program began its planning last April China also has a “solar city” and is planning for the 2010 Solar cities convention there. The focus remains on solar water heaters at present. Meanwhile in the US utility companies such as Ameren have started encouraging consumers to consider using power from renewable sources, albeit at a premium. It is an idea that is spreading into the South-East.

Those of us who have concerns about the long-term prospect for fuel supply from fossil fuels have often seen our arguments disputed by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) which is headed by Daniel Yergin. It often seems we are on the opposite sides of everything. Well this is their big week in Houston, and it will be interesting to see what news their meeting makes. The title is “Risk and the Rebuilding of Confidence.”

For more stories visit The Energy Bulletin and Drumbeat at The Oil Drum.

P26. Pick Points

Half-a-dozen or so stories of interest:

Former Vice-President Gore has given his support to the Administration’s Stimulus package. He supported the cap and trade process for dealing with CO2 emissions, and the need to enter the Copenhagen treaty talks, something the Europeans are also suggesting. Not everybody, however agrees. And despite the comments around the blogsphere the news that Dr Hansen’s supervisor is now skeptical of the whole Global Warming argument, is not making any waves, or even riding above them, in the MSM. Of course the darkness could also be because of power outages from the storm that has a million folk without power.

In Davos, at the World Economic Forum, the theme is also that investing in “green” energy projects will fix the economies of the world and bring us back to good times, although the need for investments in current fuel sources, such as oil, should not be forgotten as the IEA executive director pointed out. They will be needed for the new off-shore oil tracts that the Interior Department is now looking into opening up. And the story of Prime Minister Putin’s painting won’t go away. He can’t be excited by the news that after the Ukraine debacle Germany is now considering importing LNG. They are also forming an International Renewable Energy Agency to match the IEA.

Chinese energy imports were down to a growth rate of only 3.7% last year and while coal was down, oil was up. However the amount that they expected from Venezuela did not all arrive . Some of the oil sent from Venezuela is to pay off on a Chinese loan, but Venezuela is hoping that the world price will get back up to around $80 a barrel, and is trimming production.

Colorado is tightening the rules on natural gas, while Utah is committing to more investment in renewable energy. The sort of energy savings that the new Administration may have in mind by adopting energy efficiency standards may be epitomized by Glenborough LLC who saved 1.5 billion kilowatt hours. Cisco is coming out with business software to monitor and manage energy use.

Five utility companies are joining EPRI to study ways of conducting CCS as a retrofit to existing power plants. Trying to stimulate plankton to absorb CO2 doesn’t appear to work as well as hoped so there goes the idea of dumping iron particles into the sea. Which is good given the questions about its legality.

Further to the note the other day about Bangladesh moving to install surface coal mines, the government is now going to prepare a law governing compensation for those that will be displaced.

The Russian city of Arkhangelsk is thinking of changing its power station from oil to gas, as a way of saving money, but given that Gazprom is talking to Norway about possibly using some of its pipelines to supply Britain, though that may be a problem, since, according to a detailed article in Der Speigel on the Nord Stream pipeline, Russia only has 20-years of natural gas left.

For more stories go to The Energy Bulletin, or Drumbeat at The Oil Drum

Coal in South Asia

Over at Salon, Joseph Romm has a column today explaining the deep credentials of the current Administration team that will be addressing the global warming issue, and more particularly the controls on coal-powered electricity generation that they can expect to bring with them. This post is not however about the arguments that make up that decision, but rather to suggest that if the Administration is going to address this as a global problem, then they need to talk to many more countries than just China.

Consider, if you will, just two parts of the world – Southern Asia (and I will include India, Pakistan and Bangladesh in this) and Southern Africa. For these countries, none of whom yet have full rural electrification, the rising price of oil and gas is already causing serious impacts on their ability to function. When load shedding is more common than load supply then running a plant/factory/restaurant that relies on electricity becomes more difficult and more expensive, and the entire economy suffers in consequence. If fuel is not available for the irrigation pumps needed for the rice harvest, then the national ability to feed itself becomes threatened. But if the cost of importing fuel exceeds the ability of the country to pay, then domestic alternatives, and in these cases that means coal, become more attractive.


It is becoming grimly clear to the three Asian countries that I listed above that they can no longer afford the rising prices the world is being asked to pay for oil and natural gas. Bangladesh is facing a 30% shortfall in electricity as it goes into the growing season for rice, Pakistan can no longer pay the bills to provide oil for its power stations, and India is looking at a shortfall of 25% between electricity demand and affordable supply. India and Pakistan are hoping for pipelines to bring natural gas from Iran and Turkmenistan, since India can only produce 60% of the natural gas that it needs, but the tensions with Pakistan, through which both pipelines would have to run, are making their viability less certain.

The problem only gets worse as those nations that are exporting natural gas, such as Turkmenistan, have now persuaded the Russian government to pay the “going price” for their product. This is, in part to stop competing pipelines, such as Nabucco, that bypass Russia, from cutting the Russians out of their deal with the West. But in the process this price rise is making it harder and harder for other countries to compete in this marketplace for a viable quantity of fuel. There is no pipeline as yet to carry Turkmen gas into South Asia, and while talks still continue, the price for the product, in the end, may be more than the recipients can afford.

Domestic supplies of natural gas are insufficient to meet demand, and what then is left? Certainly nuclear energy can play a part, but the remaining cheap alternative (and these are generally poor countries) is increasingly seen to be coal. And so Bangladesh is biting the bullet, and going forward with a national policy on coal. It is also building coal-fired power stations, since at present it only has one mine and one power station and gets less than 5% of its energy from coal. The problem now comes for the mines that are planned on the surface, since while the existing underground mine has little surface impact, surface mines can be expected to displace all those currently living on the site. This has previously led to riots but in the need for fuel politicians are changing to see coal as being something, perhaps the only something, that can meet their needs. The coal that they have is of good quality, and production is planned to increase to over 20 million tons/year within the decade.

India already gets some 53% of its electrical energy from coal , and has estimated reserves of 264 billion tons, with a proven reserve of 102 billion tons, 80 years at current rates of consumption. Coal India Limited (CIL) mines 84% of India’s coal feeding 72 of the 75 thermal power stations in the country (64,285 MW) with the 380 million tons they mine. Their sales brought in $9.69 billion of which $1 billion went in tax.

Because of growing demand, expected to rise to 730 million tons by 2011-2012, CIL will increase its production to 520 million tons, rising to 664 million tons by 2016-2017. At present 84% of the coal is mined at the surface, though this may only last some 30 more years. It is not of very high quality. CIL recognize that mining will thus have to focus more in the future on underground production. Indian coal needs to be cleaned to meet international standards at higher prices, and so the company will also invest in larger coal washeries. It has planted 69 million trees as part of land reclamation after mining. With 473 mines and 424,000 employees, CIL claims to be the largest coal producing company in the world. However because it currently can’t meet demand, India is increasing coal imports to more than 8 million tons.

As for Pakistan, coal has fallen considerably in grace from earlier years, and now only supplies 7% of the fuel, and 0.2% of the electricity to the country from a single power plant. Natural gas has largely come from Balochistan, but increasingly unrest in that region of the country, the poorest region in the country, is making the supply less reliable, and demand is outstripping supply, leading to load shedding. Pakistan has very large deposits of coal (it claims the fourth largest reserves) and the Chinese are interested in helping them exploit these.

Space limits my comments on Southern Africa today, but it should be noted that the Chinese are helping Botswana exploit their coal deposits and build new power plants, and, after the debacle over power shortages last year Eskom in South Africa is expanding their coal and power production to try and catch up with demand, and the new power stations may be coal-fired, rather than the original plan for a nuclear plant.

P23. Pick Points

Half-a-dozen, or so, stories of interest.

Time was when the word Audit would strike fear, since it was (and perhaps still is) associated with a Tax Audit. But, as part of the move to reduce the demand for fossil fuels, the lowest hanging fruit (to follow on Dr Chu’s lead) is conservation and energy efficiency, and to know how to save, one must first know where energy currently goes, particularly in a home. And thus the new emphasis on Energy Audits. It is a term that is now coming to Washington, and last week A WP reporter had one done.

At the end of lat year I wrote about the experience of hiring a professional, but it is possible to do it yourself, though Austin Energy has a web site that might be useful.

Unfortunately this will not help those indigenous villages in Alaska that are currently running out of money after having had to pay the costs of fuel. Because the early onset of winter froze the rivers before the barges could deliver fuel it now must be flown in. Prices have risen to more than $8 a gallon for fuel oil. This was known last August , and by October the Coast Guard was helping get barges in to deliver although in that particular case the problem was low tides. But the price meant that many villages did not get enough, and now they have been calling for help. While there has been a significant response, the State government is considering fuel vouchers as a solution. Alaska is also looking to use some of the stimulus package to put in roads to help with the gas pipeline from the North Slope.

Prices of gas and fuel oil have slowed purchases in Pakistan which now only has 6 days of gasoline, and nine days of fuel oil in storage, though a fresh boatload of fuel (good for five more days) is due on Tuesday. However, because the government is not paying its bill, fuel oil supplies to some power plants, refineries and distributors are being shut off. One consequence is that electricity prices will have to go up, and coal is getting another look.

Over in Bangladesh, recognizing their problems, electricity for farm irrigation is being given priority. The season runs from mid-February until April and irrigation is needed even as the supply of electricity is likely to be about 30% short of demand. Perhaps they can follow India’s lead and use more local solar power. Certainly it got a better press at the Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi, despite the worsening news on funding.

The President of Turkmenistan now feels strong enough to “go it alone”, as demand for the natural gas with which his country is endowed continues to grow. Now the Russians have been happy to buy as much as possible to ship to the West, thereby reducing the supply that will be available for the Nabucco pipeline, and have just had the Uzbek’s fall in line. Yet the shortage of energy sources for India and Pakistan mean that there is an increased urgency in getting a pipeline into Turkmenistan completed. If they can then pay for the gas it will carry. On the other hand not only Prime Minister Tymoshenko, but now President Yushchenko is also calling for the Russia:Ukraine deal to be re-negotiated. meanwhile the head of the Ukrainian gas company is in hospital, and the post mortem continues.

Hmm, maybe I should have been a geologist, with average salaries increasing over 50% last year though costs are now diminishing as demand fades, and oil company earnings also suffer, perhaps cut as much as 50%. Yet smaller companies are continuing to recruit .

Norway is joining IRENA, the international renewable energy agency – at the same time that the Norwegian coal company Store Norske made a large profit as coal moved from $80 to $160 a ton, before falling back to $75. Meanwhile a Russian company is planning on putting a wind farm on the Norwegian:Russian border.

More stories can be found at The Energy Bulletin and at Drumbeats on The Oil Drum
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