Temperatures in the Flat Middle of the USA

Last week I noted the curious drop in temperature along the Eastern Seaboard in the period from around 1950 to 1965. The question then arises as to whether there are other pieces of information in the data that I have accumulated, and so, out of curiosity, today I will look at the strip of states in the middle of the country and compare their average temperature with that of the East Coast. (Checking to see if my memory that there wasn't quite the same drop is, in fact, true).

I am trying to stay away from mountains in this strip, so I will pick Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. And, while there are some hills in the selection, just for simple characterization I am going to call these the “Flat Mid States.”

Interestingly all these months since I first looked at Arkansas, there is still a problem downloading the data for Rohwer from the USHCN, so I used the GISS values instead (recognizing that they are a little manipulated, but since I am averaging over 15 stations, reckoning that the “adjustment” won’t make that much difference.)

Looking at the average plot just averaging the state average values, calculated in earlier posts, one gets, for the homogenized data:

Averaged temperature in the Mid States using state average homogenized temperatures

When one uses the TOBS data, rather than the homogenized values, then the curve changes to

Averaged temperature in the Mid States using state average TOBS temperatures

If I weigh the results by the stations in the state (there are a total of 405 stations in this series), then the result, using TOBS data becomes:

Averaged temperature in the Mid States using state average TOBS temperatures, weighted by number of stations

The effective result of the weighting in the above plot is just to average all the station data. When, however, the area of the states is considered, bearing in mind that apart from Texas they are all much the same size, then the result becomes:

Averaged temperature in the Mid States using state average TOBS temperatures, weighted by state area.

It should be noted that the trend over the range of data is sensibly zero, i.e. there has been no temperature increase on average for these states, over the past 110 years.

The drop in temperature, so clear in the data for the Atlantic States is not as prolonged here, falling from 57.9 deg F in 1954 to 55.1 deg in 1960. Comparing the two plots:

Average temperature in the Flat Mid states (upper green) , relative to those of the Atlantic Shore states (lower red), averaging states weighted by area.

Note that there is a definite rise in temperature along the sea siding states. Also the larger size of Texas tends to give a larger weight to the south here, and thus the overall higher average.

Looking at the individual trends for each state in this set, I have again divided it into two sets to make it easier to distinguish the individual lines.

Average temperatures for the Northern set of states in the Flat Mid region

Note that Wisconsin and Michigan virtually overlap.

Average temperatures for the Southern set of states in the Flat Mid region
Here it is Arkansas and Oklahoma that are almost superimposed.

I will go on to look at other regions and compare them to see how temperature averages differ around the country, but will leave you with the usual comparison.

Difference between the average value for the USHCN homogenized values after the original TOBS values have been subtracted.

The Solar Car Race

With all the focus on the oil spill over the last few weeks, and my usual Sunday posts relating to coal at the moment, I am taking time for a short break with a change in topic. Today the solar car race starts its way across the country. With cars in the race that can now exceed speeds of 105 mph the race each day may be a little shorter than it used to, when cars limped along at 15 mph and similar slower speeds.

The 2010 American Solar Challenge (ASC2010) is a competition to design, build, and drive solar-powered cars in a cross-country time/distance rally event. Teams compete in a 1100 mile drive from Broken Arrow, OK to Naperville, IL. The route has been chosen to combine pieces of old routes used in previous events, giving a bit of an historical tribute for the 20 years of organized events in North America.

Solar car Route
UPDATE: I have put the times for the first 10 cars to arrive in Neosho according to the U of Michigan. The cars had to wait an hour there, and then drove on with Michigan now parked for the evening near Topeka. Kaohsiung is not far behind them, with the next block of cars parked for the evening near Butler, MO.

The race today has the cars starting in a sequence that was defined by their performance in the Solar Grand Prix described below. There were 17 cars entered and 14 qualified for the race. (Oregon did not qualify)



The race today starts at noon in Broken Arrow, OK and will end in the grounds of Crowder College in Neosho, MO. The full schedule is:

Start in Broken Arrow, OK; must reach Neosho, MO checkpoint Mon, June 21: Finish in Topeka, KS Tue, June 22, 9 AM: Start in Topeka, KS; must reach Jefferson City, MO checkpoint Wed, June 23: Finish in Rolla, MO Thu, June 24, 9 AM: Start in Rolla, MO; must reach Alton, IL checkpoint Fri, June 25: Finish in Normal, IL Sat, June 26, 10 AM: Start in Normal, IL; finish in Naperville, IL

The rules for the race are that the cars have solar panels covering the car, and batteries inside the car, so that they can continue driving through clouds and rain. This can require considerable strategy since a period without much sun can leave the car stranded by the roadside until it is either towed into the finish line, or the sun comes out and the batteries recharge. Adjusting speed to keep going through those outages becomes critical to overall success, if the race is run under bad weather. (Which it was one year, Rolla won that one).

MO S&T solar car

If the car finishes the route for the day early it can recharge its batteries while waiting for other cars to catch up, within specified hours. The race has great camaraderie and teams have been known to lend their competitors parts to keep them in the race.

Since I will likely be trying to find out what is happening most of this afternoon, there will not be a coal post today – I’ll restart them after the race is over (it ends Saturday). There is some family interest in this given that the Engineer is supporting Northwestern and I reckon that the Missouri team will, again, show their quality in the end.

Prior to the race there was a Grand Prix, down in Cresson Texas.

FSGP is a track race, which also serves as a qualifier for the road race. The top teams in FSGP, which complete at least 100 laps in a single day, or any two consecutive day total of 150 laps, will automatically qualify for ASC. Only Official Laps will count towards qualifying mileage. The track is 1.7 miles.

In addition, each solar car driver must complete a minimum of 25 laps of driving during FSGP to qualify to drive in ASC.

The order of the race was set as a result of the Grand PRix, with the fastest lap times being set by Stanford and Minnesota, who tied with a time of 2.05 minutes for the 1.7 mile course.

Because of the tightness of some of the designs, the race has its share of dramatic moments. Kentucky had a front wheel spindle shear, Oregon had electrical problems that couldn't be fixed, but those on the Western Michigan car were. (As was Missouri's parking brake problem).

The race started at noon, with cars leaving at minute intervals toward Neosho. Their arrival into the check-point at Crowder College is reported to be:

1. Michigan at 2:37
2. Bochum (Germany) 2:49
3. Minnesota 2:55
4 Kaohsiung (Taiwan) 2:56
5. Calgary 3:??
6. SUNY 3:25
7. Missouri S&T 3:38
8. Stanford 3:51
9. Kentucky 4:37
10. Northwestern 4:37

I believe that they had to stop racing at 5 pm. But could recharge the batteries until 8 pm.

Asphalt highways, gravel roads and the pig manure answer

One of the problems that the rising price of crude has created lies with the related cost of asphalt. As a result states are being more creative in spending their repair budgets, and it is interesting to see some of their answers. Asphalt is used extensively in creating the roads that we drive over every day. Because of this traffic, and movement of the underlying material, roadbeds can fail and erode. But not all do, at least to the extent of the majority. Just this last week the Asphalt Pavement Alliance has announced the winners of this years Perpetual Pavement Award. The winners have to be the owners of asphalt pavements that are at least 35 years old and have never had a structural failure, and the average time between resurfacing has to be no less than 10 years. There are ten awardees, with sections of highway that won being found in Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, South Carolina and Tennessee. The winners range in length up to 12 miles, and from Interstates to State Roads.

Asphalt has been getting more expensive, as the price of crude oil increases, and this reflects back to the state highway departments that must repair damaged roads.

In Illinois, for example, the average asphalt overlay will last between five and eight years (Illinois State Toll Highway Authority) or eight to fifteen years (Illinois Department of Transportation). The decision on repair is a function of both the amount of damage, and the amount of traffic. One consequence of this is the return from asphalt coated to gravel roads. Ugo Bardi recently commented on this at The Oil Drum. He noted that an early use of the Canadian Tar Sands was as a direct application as a roadbed material, and the same has been considered for the West Indies.

Asphalt is one of the most re-circulated of materials, since the material that is laid into the roadbed is only about 5% asphalt and 95% aggregate, so that when the original surface is removed as part of the resurfacing operation, about 80% of it is recycled. And it is not just the aggregate, and some of the binder that gets recycled.

Starting in 1994 Florida DOT has also mandated that the mix include recycled ground tire rubber.

From 1994 through 2007, Florida has recycled the equivalent of over 12.5 million passenger tires into asphalt pavements, saving valuable landfill space while improving the performance of our highways. That works out to over 471 passenger tires per lane mile. Current research shows benefits of combing both ground tire rubber and high tech polymers to improve asphalt binders even more.

Because of the changing price of oil, most states have an adjustment index for the price of asphalt that their construction contractors buy (and then charge the state for).

Some states are returning roads back from asphalt to gravel, though this is not as easy as it may at first appear, since the construction of the roadbeds is different, as is the maintenance, since a gravel road is graded back to quality, rather than being ground up and resurfaced. This is particularly true when road traffic is light, but a number of states are moving this way because of budget constraints.

Thirty-eight counties in Michigan replaced a total of 100 miles of asphalt roads with gravel because of decreasing funds in 2008-09, said Monica Ware, a spokeswoman for the County Road Association of Michigan.

In Montcalm County, Mich., 10 miles were converted to cut patching costs in 2009, said Randy Stearns, managing director of the county's road commission. He cited one road that cost a combined $39,244 in 2008 and early 2009 for patching, but only $7,300 to crush into gravel. More roads may be converted this summer, he said.

The relative costs of going from gravel to asphalt indicates that the transition comes at around 200 vehicles/day.

Relative costs for different road types (U of Minnesota )

Now the price of asphalt is anticipated to rise again, and so what are states to do? In Missouri, a state that grows a lot of pigs, – mainly in farms, though there is a concern over the rising numbers of feral hogs in the state. Putting the problem of disposing of a lot of porcine waste with the high cost of asphalt, folks in Missouri, at the highway leading into Six Flags at Eureka (just outside Saint Louis) have taken the logical next step.

The witnesses lining the bright stretch of North Outer Drive along Interstate 44 — particularly those with noses and an abiding interest in sustainable technology — won't soon forget the moment the red dump truck deposited a 15-ton load of the designer asphalt into a road paver late Wednesday morning.

"Whew!" gasped a worker with Pace Construction Co., the St. Louis County road contractor that joined forces with Innoventor, the Earth City-based engineering and design firm that perfected the process of converting the animal waste into a bio-oil used in asphalt binder.

To others, the air swelled with the sweet smell of potential for new manufacturing opportunities, jobs and, possibly, profits.

The initial stretch of road treated was some 500-ft long, and will get a significant seasonal traffic from the amusement park, accelerating wear potential and allowing the evaluation to be made in a shorter time.

The process was thought up and developed through Innoventor. Essentially the animal waste is converted into a bio-oil that can serve as the binder in the asphalt. The program is currently getting the close attention of the Missouri Department of Transportation, as well as the U.S. EPA. (And I suspect that the next time I drive by the site, I may roll down a window and have a quiet sniff).

It takes all kinds, to find the right answers.

The Precipitation Hypothesis - is it true?

Today we test the “Diane Sawyer” hypothesis. The hypothesis we are testing is that global warming has led to an increase in precipitation. I’d call it rain for short, but Ms Sawyer made the remark at the end of an ABC newscast the other day about snow. Namely she stated that we should not think, because we have more snow that Global Warming is not happening. In fact, she went on to say words to the effect that because the Earth is getting warmer this causes more precipitation, which, at the time was what Washington was seeing, and that this has been predicted.

A quick check and there are sites that state, for example:

Numerous empirical observations and models of the global climate confirm the hypothesis that global warming enhances the global hydrologic cycle. For instance, a global warming by 4°C (7.2°F) is expected to increase global precipitation by about 10 percent. Models suggest that the increase is more likely to come as heavier rainfall, rather than as more frequent rainfalls or falls of longer duration.

Well that is pretty definitive, and so let us, using the same procedure as last week, see if in fact this hypothesis is true.


And, to make my life (and yours if you are following along) easier I am going to use the structure of the spreadsheet that I created last week, and merely, where possible, replace the temperature data with annual precipitation data from the same set of weather stations. To get the precipitation information I step through the same sequence from the United States Historical Climatology Network to get to the station sites for Missouri, which if you will remember, gets me to this map.


As before I will step down through the list of weather stations that are given for the state to get the data that I need. After clicking on the name of the station (and again I will use Appleton City as the example) I already have the station data entered from last time, so all I need to do is click on the “Get Monthly Data” phrase.

Now, when I get to the Monthly data page I now scroll down to the bottom of the page, where I can see the following selection:


As before this will take you to a screen that gives you the file name that has been created,


And when you click the blue line, then a file is downloaded to your computer. As before if you open the file, then you get the list of annual precipitation for the site since 1895.


Returning to the spreadsheet with all the stations on it, I now paste that column of data into the table, starting in square C13. As before I continue doing this, until I have all the precipitation data from the USHCN weather stations (all 26).

In contrast with the temperature data I don’t know where to go to get the precipitation data for Missouri from GISS – a visit to their site notes that they get their information from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia – and given the current kerfuffle over there, I am going to give trying to get info from them a pass. Still we have the information from the last 114 years for Missouri, based on 26 stations.

I already have the average for those stations set up from when I created the original spreadsheet (though I have to change the data ranges for the plots). And now I can check the hypothesis that we started with. Given the reported increase in global temperature, has there been an increase in precipitation in Missouri?


Well if one looks there has been a very small, and statistically insignificant, increase in precipitation over the last 114 years, so it appears that the Diane Sawyer hypothesis is incorrect.

To explain the “statistically insignificant” remark, I am going to give a relatively simple explanation that I found here of the meaning of the r-squared values that I put on every graph, to show how significant the trend is

The main result of a correlation is called the correlation coefficient (or "r"). It ranges from -1.0 to +1.0. The closer r is to +1 or -1, the more closely the two variables are related.

If r is close to 0, it means there is no relationship between the variables. If r is positive, it means that as one variable gets larger the other gets larger. If r is negative it means that as one gets larger, the other gets smaller (often called an "inverse" correlation).

While correlation coefficients are normally reported as r = (a value between -1 and +1), squaring them makes then easier to understand. The square of the coefficient (or r square) is equal to the percent of the variation in one variable that is related to the variation in the other. After squaring r, ignore the decimal point. An r of .5 means 25% of the variation is related (.5 squared =.25). An r value of .7 means 49% of the variance is related (.7 squared = .49).

To show where the significant variable is for the state data, lets look at the change in precipitation with latitude (r-squared is 0.82):


Still nothing significant with longitude, but it is interesting to revisit (since the plots were already set up) the questions I posed last time on data scatter, and population. I had hypothesized that (based on Anthony Watts evaluation of weather stations) the scatter in the measure of the data (as identified by the standard deviation) would get worse over time. It did not for temperatures in Missouri – possibly because it might be tied to rates of temperature change, and Missouri hasn't seen one - but also that could have been because of the change in thermometers. Here is the plot for precipitation:


Well there is a trend, if not a very significant one, which gives a little scientific credence to Anthony Watts for the state of Missouri. And does population size have an impact?


I was going to leave that without comment, but I suspect that the apparent correlation has more to do with where folk live in regard to latitude, than the actual size of the population, but to validate the relationship would require a lot more data than I have input to date.

Now you may say that what I have posted today really has little relevance, since Missouri has had an insignificant amount of warming over the past 114 years but the moisture that Missouri sees (and feels in the rain and snow) is largely generated elsewhere, and so if there is a correlation, given the relatively large amount of precipitation the state gets, then it should show up, or should it?

The reason I ask the last question is that if you go to GISS you will find this plot:


Now (I checked) there is no real correlation between Missouri precipitation and that which is global, but the conclusions regarding changing rates are the same. I quote NOAA :

Globally-averaged land-based precipitation shows a statistically insignificant upward trend with most of the increase occurring in the first half of the 20th century.

So I am afraid it is not just Missouri data but also global data that falsifies the “Sawyer” hypothesis.

P43. Pick Points

I mentioned in Monday’s post that I have an interest in algae, and so I will put up a couple of items that caught my attention this weekend. The first deals with the possibility of using wind power to provide some of the energy that algae need to foster growth Some of the European wind farms have been up for a while, and one in Denmark, that was installed in 1990, is looking at using some of the extra power to encourage algae growth. The algae, through the generation of biofuel, would thus act as a form of “battery” for the wind. One problem, however, is to ensure biological security, since the escape of algae species into a favorable place, such as in Hawaii, can have negative results, and require costly capture and remediation. The use of algae for flue gas cleanup has inspired a number of efforts, from Israel to MIT (who use it to make hydrogen), to Missouri . There is also the blog Oilgae, which carries the MIT report on the topic.


Developers of the Shtokman project are talking about using CCS as part of the strategy for development at the site. There is anticipation that the cost of the project will decline with the poor economy. More details of the loan from China to encourage a pipeline and oil supply to that nation are now emerging. The change in investment strategy has the advantage of getting a good price now for the oil, and securing it into the future. Russia is also trying to find a way to improve the efficient use of energy, with planning for a new law on the way, and an example of how it might be done, comes from a dairy. In the United States homeowners can look at the Home Energy Rating System which compares the energy use of a house with a standard. Based on the result that you get different approaches may be needed to lower the number (a 200 means you use twice the standard). Oregon is moving to have the state provide loans to encourage upgrading of homes in a way that would make them more energy efficient. As I noted in Monday’s post, this is something that we are seeing in an increasing number of states.

St Mary Land and Exploration is drilling horizontal wells into the Woodford, and Haynesville shale and while cutting the number of rigs back to 7, from 16 at the peak of last year, one or two of the rigs will shuttle between the Haynesville, the Eagle Ford and the Marcellus shale sites. The lateral section of the well is around 3,300 ft, and with 10 slick-water fracs will use some 3,000,000 lb of resin coated sand proppant. There is some move in Pennsylvania to require that drilling records for the Marcellus be made public (including production data) every six months. Other states such as Louisiana and Wyoming post such production on Web sites. Chesapeake, who is drilling both Marcellus and Hanesville is currently getting a favorable press. With natural gas prices projected as perhaps falling as low as $2 per MMBtu due to lack of demand and overproduction, this years prospects don’t look good for the industry.

Scotland is looking for new ways to develop marine energy, the target being some 60,000 MW. The current projects are based in Orkney, and the European Marine Energy Centre. The current targets are sites around Britain and Ireland that are capable of producing more than 1,000 MW each, largely from wave and tidal energy.

The State Governors are asking Presidential help in promoting biofuels hoping to see approval, for example, of ethanol blends above 10% and as high as 30%. (This was something Dr Chu was asked about last week).

Because of the global financial problems Russia and Kazakhstan are considering slowing the development of the Karachanganak project (which is reputed to have 47 trilion cubic ft of gas).

P28 Pick Points

Half-a-dozen or so stories of interest:

As up to seven new LNG ports and a number of carriers are completed this year it is expected that supplies will increase to the United States. The projects have been planned for so long, and cost so much that gas must flow and be sold. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has had to develop policies on LNG , but even they defer to the market. Given this potential for over-supply the Freeport LNG terminal is looking into the potential for re-export, and local storage, since peak demand and supply may not be in phase. On the other hand recognizing that the time might be ripe to gain access to a cheaper source of power, Japan’s Tokyo Gas is looking at installing a new LNG terminal. To ensure supplies they have agreed to extend buying contracts for LNG supplies from Alaska. The Japanese, who are the largest users of LNG, need to do this to replace supplies that have been lost due to export reductions from Indonesia. The Alaskan gas sells for roughly 4/7ths of what the Japanese would have to pay for gas from Qatar.

In the lower 48, gas producers from shale are moving to stabilize supplies to the network. A new “Tiger Pipeline” is planned to collect and deliver for Haynesville shale gas into the interstate network. A new well is going into the Haynesville, that will run 17,000 ft horizontally. The Marcellus shale is also seeing some investor interest. XTO expects that gas (natural) prices will head back up before the year is out.

Hopes for energy price increases are hitting the wind industry, just as it comes out of a year where the USA added 8.5 GW of wind power. Of the major states adding wind power, California has seen the smallest recent growth, and in part that is because all the “easy” sites have now been taken, and the costs of permitting are now beginning to bite in the sites that are now in development. As a result Iowa is now second in wind power in the nation and has six manufacturers. But it turns out that the claim that the wind industry had more employees than coal mining relied on skewed counting (they counted everyone in wind, but only the miners in coal mining. But older wind farms are refurbishing with larger turbines and this also helps economically.

There will be a new 500 MW farm in Iowa, if they can get enough land, but construction will start in 3-5 years. In Rhode Island they plan on starting an offshore plant in 2010, they have enough wind for utility size operations which is level 3 on land (out of 7 with 1 being poorest), but have higher levels offshore, which is where the farm will go. In inland Northwest Missouri they now have a town (albeit only 1300 people) that receives all their power from the 4 nearby wind turbines.

The disruption caused by Total giving a contract to an outside, rather than domestic company in the UK may spread to other refineries and include nuclear power plants.

High temperatures in Australia, and particularly Melbourne played some considerable havoc with the Australian Open . Even as that ended, rolling blackouts are anticipated today because of the closure of the power link from Tasmania (due to overheating) . About 20,000 homes in the state (Victoria) are without power and the rise in the demand for energy has reached the limits of what can be provided. Bush fires are also threatening power lines, and a local coal company operation , while the drought is draining local water supplies . Locals are also concerned because of the secrecy of the order of priorities for load shedding.

It is not only in California and Australia that water supply is a problem. In the Central Asian republics Russia is stepping in to sort out possible conflicts since the countries from which the main water supply comes (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan( want to develop hydropower, while those downstream (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan) want the water for agriculture. The Tajiks are willing to offer the Uzbeks water for energy. Turkmenistan is also involved since they send out electric power that must pass through other countries to the end user.

Uzbekistan is demanding 10 per cent of the $0.03 per kilowatt paid by Tajikistan to Turkmenistan.
This year the Uzbeks are also charging Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan US$ 240 per 1000 m3, up from 145 dollars last year.

And the Tajiks are not taking kindly to the Russian intervention.

For more stories go to The Energy Bulletin or Drumbeat at The Oil Drum